POTUS Root: I Will Not Run, BUT TR loses 1912 Republican Nomination?

Basically, POD is Taft goes to the Supreme Court, so Elihu Root succeeds TR. Root wanted to be POTUS even less than Taft, so he stands down in 1912. TR tries to get the nomination, to the chagrin of the Old Guard. Assume Root stays neutral in his endorsement. Without a POTUS backing them, are the Old Guard strong enough to deny TR the Republican nomination?
 
Basically, POD is Taft goes to the Supreme Court, so Elihu Root succeeds TR. Root wanted to be POTUS even less than Taft, so he stands down in 1912. TR tries to get the nomination, to the chagrin of the Old Guard. Assume Root stays neutral in his endorsement. Without a POTUS backing them, are the Old Guard strong enough to deny TR the Republican nomination?

Depends very much on TR. If he takes the same ultra-progressive line as OTL, then Root is lkely to turn against him, and either change his mind about standing down or else use the Party machinery in favour of someone else (Philander Knox?), as TR used it for Taft, and TTL presumably for Root himself, in 1908.

If, OTOH, TR just stands on his record, avoids any wild-sounding statements, and refers enquirers to his actual performance in 1901-09, then I don't see what can stop him. Of course, after 16 years of Republican rule this will be a much harder campaign than 1904, but he'll probably win in November too.
 
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