I'm continuing my look at how badly the Republicans could have fallen in the earl 1930s. I already went through the Senate and House. In OTL, the balance of the Senate at the beginning of the 75th Congress was 75 Democrats, 16 Republicans, 2 Farmer-Labor, and 1 Progressive. However, with a slight percentage increase for the Democrats in the 1932, 1934, and 1936 Senate elections, the Republicans could have been down to only 9 Senators. The lone independent is George Norris of Nebraska.
Next is the House, where again the Republicans were already down by a huge margin. In OTL after the 1936 House elections, there were 334 Democrats, 88 Republicans, 8 Progressives (7 in Wisconsin, 1 in California), and 5 Farmer-Labor Representatives. After the tweaking, the shift is even worse, with the Republicans going down to only 40 House members! I also have William Lemke staying a member of the Union Party as Representative, since the Republican Party ITTL is sinking.
Now for the governors. At the beginning of 1937, there were 38 Democratic governors, 8 Republicans, 1 Farmer-Labor, and 1 Progressive. The Republicans were in California (thanks Upton Sinclair), Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, the Dakotas, and for some reason Maryland and New Jersey.
Of these, the previous elections in Maryland, New Jersey, and South Dakota were close. And with William Langer as governor and the Union Party surviving, I could see Langer joining it and bring the Non-Partisan League along with him. So the Republicans at worst could have been down to 4 governorships in 1937. Those governors are Frank Merriam, George Aiken, Francis Murphy, and Lewis Burrows.
With the Republicans this hurt after the Depression, is it likely they would splinter, and what would arise to replace them? I think Hiram Johnson (one of the few surviving R senators) would bolt to the Progressives and boost them in California. The growing gap between conservative Southern Democrats and FDR would probably also lead to a split eventually, while rump Republican parties stay on in the far west and New England.
Next is the House, where again the Republicans were already down by a huge margin. In OTL after the 1936 House elections, there were 334 Democrats, 88 Republicans, 8 Progressives (7 in Wisconsin, 1 in California), and 5 Farmer-Labor Representatives. After the tweaking, the shift is even worse, with the Republicans going down to only 40 House members! I also have William Lemke staying a member of the Union Party as Representative, since the Republican Party ITTL is sinking.
Now for the governors. At the beginning of 1937, there were 38 Democratic governors, 8 Republicans, 1 Farmer-Labor, and 1 Progressive. The Republicans were in California (thanks Upton Sinclair), Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, the Dakotas, and for some reason Maryland and New Jersey.
Of these, the previous elections in Maryland, New Jersey, and South Dakota were close. And with William Langer as governor and the Union Party surviving, I could see Langer joining it and bring the Non-Partisan League along with him. So the Republicans at worst could have been down to 4 governorships in 1937. Those governors are Frank Merriam, George Aiken, Francis Murphy, and Lewis Burrows.
With the Republicans this hurt after the Depression, is it likely they would splinter, and what would arise to replace them? I think Hiram Johnson (one of the few surviving R senators) would bolt to the Progressives and boost them in California. The growing gap between conservative Southern Democrats and FDR would probably also lead to a split eventually, while rump Republican parties stay on in the far west and New England.
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