Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun
- Thread starter Ambassador Huntsman
- Start date
Yeah this is something I really wanted someone to write about for a long time so I'm having fun with the tl!
Tbf Japan has many options in terms of colonisation and there's a possibility that Japan uses the movement of Chinese ppl in the 19th century to create a Maritime SEA with the Chinese and Japanese being on top (tbf I think Japanese policy is to keep the Chinese in, the natives down, and the Malay out at the 19th century) as the Chinese would readily immigrate to SEA if given the opportunity, and internal migration from beiritou is also very plausible. The Chinese would also be traders that the Japanese can co-opt and have to live with and I'd think the Japanese would welcome them if they work for the Japanese. The natives will be kept down because they could be divided and conquered and be encouraged to stay in the mountains while the Japanese and Chinese settle the prime agricultural land. The Malays have to be kept out because they became the Lingua Franca of the Malayan speaking world during the 14th to 18th centuries and the Japanese would obviously not want that as they'd want to be the primier trading power. The Malays also have a tradition of nation building and the Japanese would want to prevent that.
I can see a rivalry developing between Malayans and Japan ala the Britain and France, think that might happen?
nah I think Johor won't be as successful as Japan in terms of the navy and such and the Dutch would prob be the primary allies of Johore before the brits come in while Brunei and the Phillippine statelets should be Japan's allies, and I think in the long term Malaya proper would be taken by the Japanese.
tbf I think it is very possible for Japan to take over all of SEA if they don't get bad luck.
In terms of settler colonisation I think Japan has three options: Siberia/Manchuria, America and Australia. Siberia and Manchuria would be a natural extension of Japanese control over the Kurils and Kamchatka, and if the Japanese tap into the fur trade to use their technological advantage to make more fur related items to sell to China and as luxury items to Europe Japan will make a killing. If Japan does the fur trade I can see America being part of the lands Japan goes to too as an extension of their control over the Aluetians. The colonisation of Australia would be an extension of their control over SEA and they'd prob be able to grow sugarcane and stuff there.
Tbf idk which place they'd colonise because all have their own advantages and disadvantages but Manchuria and bits of Siberia does seem to be the first option since they're closer and they'd want control over there before they ever think about colonisation of the other two areas.
tbf I think Confucism would make it ok as portugese control would lessen as the Japanese and Dutch push the Portugese out of SEA, and its not that bad for the government if they get subsumed into the yamato church. its those who don't which is the problem and are more likely to become rebels.
We already had a discussion on where Japan will colonize and I don't think they'll go after Australia since it's more further south and not as important for expansion, at least until there are better ways of surveying the huge island or when the Industrial Revolution happens.
IMO the most likely colonization target for Japan is Siberia and Manchuria due to their proximity to Japan
Tbf if they go for Australia it would be for the northern coast for sugarcane only. Going further south would be unfeasible. But the north only? Maaaaybe.
Tbf Manchuria and Siberia is a great place to colonise. The groups there are semi nomadic and could be swamped by the birth rates of pre industrial agricultural societies with guns. The other powers are also too far to fuck with Japan too until the Russians get here and I don't think the Russians would be amenable to marching an army through their entire empire and they'd have to sail through multiple Japanese controlled areas before their navy can get anywhere. If Russia comes about as per otl their borders in Siberia would be smaller. Tbf I think the regions in between Japan and Russia would be interesting considering it'd make sense for both sides to put proxies and have them war against each other and Japanese Turkic nomads is a cool and weird idea.
Tbf any differences in colonisation in America? Hope France antarctique continues to survive.
How far do you think Japan could go? I’m thinking they could go at least as far as Irkutsk, Lake Baikal, and the Lena River and down to include much if not all of Manchuria and bordering the Ming. Maybe more than that but idk. Russia reached the Pacific in 1639 though Ofc it took them much longer to solidify their control but they are still present in the region.
Without the Qing it leaves me curious who will rise to replace the Ming in China. The Shun perhaps?
I think around otl Manchuria + lake Baikal and the stanovoy Range and the verkhoyansk range at least. The Lena river would also be a good river to separate the Japanese from the Russians.
Tbf I wonder when the Japanese would get to Siberia considering they would want to control Hokkaido first, and the only reason why they'd be in Manchuria would be for the fur trade.
Tbf russian expeditions start at the 17th century and I'd think the Japanese would mostly be hanging around in coastal Manchuria, Shakalin, the Kuril islands and Kamchatka. The Chinese would fight the Russians around lake Baikal to help their proxies if a strong (native) Chinese dynasty stands. Manchuria would then be put between China and Japan until the Chinese lose interest in the outside world and close their doors to commerce (which would hurt the Japanese economy immensely but they'd still be fine) and they start vassalising everyone in Manchuria. This means Japan prob will be dealing with fractured populations of Manchus, Mongols, Russians and Ainu in their Siberian territories which would be interesting, especially how the Russians would see things. Russia prob won't have any Pacific coastline.
Tbf considering the Aleutians are right next to Kamchatka and if Japan continues on the fur trade if they get to Alaska they'd basically have Russia's place as the dudes that spread from Alaska down the west coast. Which is why I suggested Japan colonise America in the first place. Like I could imagine Japan building fort st. Dionysius and fort Ross in the 19th century and swamp Alaska, BC and California with settlers. The only reason why it's unfeasible is if they are overstretched not because it's implausible since the colonisation of the west coast happened in the 19th century.
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It was also around this time that the Philippine higlanders - coupled with the lowlanders fleeing Spanish colonisation - have constructed the Rice Terraces of the Philippine Cordilleras on slopes where most other cultures - including the Japanese - would have found absurd.
Short of the Ifugao and other highland cultures getting influenced by commercialism compared to their traditionalistic and ritualistic bent - so as to have their people easily enticed by more profitable prospects and fear missing those out - this will provide a reason for the highlanders to stay put on their mountain communities as opposed to complaining of being denied good farming plots at the lowlands and the valleys.
Short of the Ifugao and other highland cultures getting influenced by commercialism compared to their traditionalistic and ritualistic bent - so as to have their people easily enticed by more profitable prospects and fear missing those out - this will provide a reason for the highlanders to stay put on their mountain communities as opposed to complaining of being denied good farming plots at the lowlands and the valleys.
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Tbf the Chinese also did so tho and I'd think Chinese from Guangdong would introduce the idea, and the Japanese may start making terraced rice fields earlier too. I could see them popping up still as the Japanese would still cause a bunch of natives to flee up into the Highlands considering the war. Maybe it'd be smaller or something.
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It has been likewise suggested that it was the fleeing lowlanders - many of which must have likewise been the same Cantonese to boot - that played an instrumental role in constructing most of these.
Commercial and mercantilistic thinking would have suggested most societies that exploiting such slopes would have been absurd and unprofitable considering the rather little profits compared to the inputs needed to be invested towards its construction and maintenance. As for the highlanders and the lowlanders that they integrated - that not as much of a concern as much as preserving their way of life is.
Perhaps, more Cantonese can find its way to Japanese territories as terrace farmers doubling as hydraulic engineers - and they likely will integrate to their communities to boot.
That said - the respective profits and wages that agricultural mechanisation and the associated industrialisation will make for themselves will likewise make terraces - specifically the ones motivated more by commerce than community and tradition - abandoned, as it had been the case in OTL Japan.
Hell, the hospitality industry around the Banaue Rice Terraces (alongside the country's market and hoarding shenanigans) have made most of their youth shirk farming and maintaining it.
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IMO Japanese California isn't that likely due to them prioritizing other areas like Hawaii, Polynesia, SEA, and Siberia and Manchuria. But them following the Aleutians to colonize Alaska and maybe parts of Yukon and British Columbia? Can easily believe.
Could Japan possibly bring this back to their mountainous home islands?
They had pretty amounts of terraces owing to the ever-present threat of famine in the Edo period; the issue is that their motivation is more commercial in nature than traditional (yeah, even in the Edo Period - remember the elaborate financial system they've built around the Dojima Rice Exchange), and upon the demographic collapse starting from the 90's, not even the generous agricultural subsidies could stop so much of the remaining youth born from moving into Tokyo.
And even before mechanisation and industrialisation, there are only so much people who can build and maintain terraces. The terraces will stop somewhere due to not being able to entice enough manpower going their way, else the cities would be deprived of its artisans, samurai, and eventual proletarian labour.
Tbf I could see them colonizing cascadia and that I agree that they're lucky if they colonise California. Tbf if they colonise California it'd be done by the ppl in otl BC and they'd have to kick the Americans out (tbf idk if the US of A exists considering the pod). But I do agree that Siberia would be their first priority. It does mean California has a very high chance of being its own thing instead of being part of 'Merica tho.
Considering industrialisation should be quite gradual due to their proximity with European powers they should do better ittl?
Considering that Japan is far more of a mercantile power with much more breadbaskets to import grain from ITTL? Considering that the Tokugawa Shogunate and its domains already had somewhat an idea of complicated finances and fiscal policy mainly - though not limited, if centred - in the form of commodity futures, and have largely been well on track on modernisation even before the Meiji Restoration? Nah, not really, and especially so if the country will still invest in a way that will try to jam-pack as much of its industry as possible in the already heavily-urbanised home islands.
That said - the native presence in Iriebashi can compel the island's Cantonese to help them imitate the ways of their Cordilleran cousins, that in order to maintain their autonomy in face of increasing Japanisation of the island's lowlands. The Cantonese immigrating towards Japan, meanwhile, will do so towards an culturally and ethnically homogeneous society that doesn't provide for much pretext to reject its mainstream lowland culture. It's only more so when it industrialises and inevitably saps the money and manpower needed to maintain expansive tracts way in excess of what has been demanded, even from the viewpoint of heavily-subsidised peasants and larger farmers.
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Thank you for the support!!
The Ming dynasty will last beyond 1644 as around this time, it’s in a significantly stronger position than IOTL. The north is politically fractured between the Jin, Northern Yuan, and the Yehe Jurchens and China is actually led by a competent emperor ITTL who also acted as a leading figure in his father’s later reign which IOTL was a more unstable, unsavory time period of irreversible decline. China is still facing larger than usual peasant rebellions due to the same famines as IOTL (which will be covered in a separate update) but it’s dealing with them much better ITTL. Not to mention the Imjin War not happening means better finances earlier on. So the Shun of OTL will not be the inheritors of the Ming, but hey maybe there will be a future, unrelated dynasty that just happens to be called the Shun…
Tbf I see the cantonese/Teochew/Hokkien ppl being the first wave of settlers into new places and the Japanese then coming in to take over and forming a plurality with the Chinese and maybe even become the main group of ppl in some parts of sea.
Tbf will the ming fight the Russians then since I'd think the first expeditions of the Amur should happen around the same time in the 1670s.