1989- A Bold Opportunity
Background
Pakistan has fallen very far to say the least. Having lost everything but the Punjab, its government is a temporary affair until they decide a new system, a good chunk of the higher-ups have fled to parts unknown along with more than a few soldiers (though it has been speculated they were given safety to the Soviets or Chinese in exchange for bending the knee and joining them). Their economy is in shamble and while the sanctions are somewhat gone, that's mainly to prevent the state from collapasing into anarchy and creating a massive refugee crisis, albeit while there are some already fleeing. Overall, the situation was looking pretty grim for them. The inhabitants were desperate for stability and many disenheartened, some even by their own faith due to seeing it abused and twisted by the Zia-ul-Haq regime prior while the younger generation were more angry and rebellious about it. The United States and the Soviet Union meanwhile were trying to find solutions as they could remain there forever. While it was easier for the USSR due to proximity, the oncoming wave of rebellion and the inevitable dissolution of the Warsaw Pact was proving to be a much more immediate concern to them, especially with some wondering if the constinuent nations of the USSR would do the same. This gave the United States an informal greater presence here. Afghanistan did not much care for it since they were consolidating their holdings though trying to lend a hand to maintain cordial relations on both sides. India meanwhile is focusing on their elections along with the looming threat of their econoy collapsing, a phenomenon that has been going understated in the elections, but has been growing harder and harder to ignore.
Overall, Pakistan was quite in a desperate situation, especially with the damaged reputation meaning few if any nations would be willing to lend them aid, especially because of how they were surrounded by potential and current enemies. They would need the aid of one of the superpowers to secure themselves, but beyond that, they'd need to be able to try and wipe the state clean, though it was unknown how. The leadership had enough trust to try and keep it on life support, but they were not trusted abroad beyond that, especially with some having fled elsewhere, including to Saudi Arabia for their own safety and that of their families. However, from such a dangerous opportunity, a bold new plan would be hatched. The remnants of Pakistan's ISI had been keeping tabs on their environment, including India. The Khalisan movement they once worked with had gone on without their support, growing stronger against India's neglectful attitude of them and the cries were gradually changing from autonomy to secession among some.
And from that... came an idea.
A bold and drastic idea. The ISI floated this idea to the remaining leadership of Pakistan, to the few remaining connections over in Khalistan and even to the CIA of the United States...
Punjabi Secession?
Seceding was a very serious matter. And while they were gaining more and more prominence over in the Punjab, it still seemed like it would be a rather far-off option, at least at first glance for many people living in the Indian Punjab. After all, even if they did succeed, how would they be able to take care of themselves, especially being sandwiched between various prominent nations? They would obviously need the backing of a powerful nation, even a superpower, to be able to seriously consider the notion to go through with it. At the same time, various elements were keeping the idea still in people's minds. First, people were becoming more aware of the dangerous situation that India's economy was approaching. While it was in the background due to the growing reliance of imports and other factors outside of it, it grew worse starting in the mid-1980s as imports swelled and the Afghan-Pakistani War left an impact over on the nation and made the imports more needed. The result was a
twin deficit, where the Indian trade balance was in deficit and at the same time, the government was running on a huge fiscal deficit.
India's foreign exchange reserves were dwindling and it was almost a bet on what would fail first, the trade balance or the government. Discussions were even held over the World Bank and IMF over their assistance over with India. Besides the economic concerns and the government's lackluste direction in how to deal with it, there was also the frustration over with the government and their failures at addressing the plight and grievances of the Sikhs. From the issues within the 1970s, to Operation Blue Star to the anti-Sikh riots... this anger endured and remained, even if channeled to more pacifistic means such as protests and growing shows of support. The greatest slap on the face was the final push done for it to become an autonomous region, having even gathered support among the various Sikh soldiers, military officials and even generals within the nation to try and help push this along... but to no avail, with not much of a response from Rajiv or the other politicians that were running. With Pakistan gone, the Indian government felt they had little else to worry about and thus, viewed the Sikhs as less of a threat or perhaps with the hope the movement would die down if they left it alone over time and to run out of steam. Besides, they did have larger problems to worry about and it was quite a large nation.
Nonetheless, the sentiments kept the idea of secession alive. However, the idea would suddenly go from a vivid daydream to a plausible reality.
The ISI would get into contact with some of their Khalistan affiliates and to the leaders spread a most interesting proposition: for Indian Punjab to secede from India... and to form Khalistan by merging with the remains of Pakistan.
Virtually all of the Punjab reunited at last... and the reclaimation of Lahore and Amritsar over for the Sikh people...
It was quite an intoxicating proposal to say the least. They would get what they want and then some. Of course, there was more than a few issues. India would definitely not take this well if done... at least without the backing of a superpower. Additionally, there would be a matter of the political will and if both people were wanting this. After all, the Sikhs would be outnumbered in their supposed homeland here, not to mention how the people of Pakistan would feel about this... Yet... such a proposal reinforced the possibility of secession within their minds of the leaders.
All while in the Indian Punjab, these protests kept happening. Walkouts were becoming increasingly common by the youth captivated by this ideals and driven by a resentment toward what they perceived as a government and nation that were hostile to their ideals. Peaceful protests kept being maintained through sitdowns or peaceful marches. While the cries of autonomy have not yet been overtaken by that of secession, the anxiety remained. After all, even if they did get autonomy, would the federal government want to maintain it? Could they trust it?
Enter The Americans
When the Askew Adminiation would hear news of the CIA, they were not expecting this endeavor. It was without a doubt quite a daring and risky endeavor. US relations with India were being improved over the past few years so this could be a potential major setback to say the least. At the same time, it would be an opportunity to strengthen American presence in the area, which his security advisors have been pushing. This could easily be done by investing heavily in the new nation. After all, it would not be unlike stuff with the Marshall Plan and so on, and it would help the new nation get up on its feet and manage itself economically. By becoming a new state, especially with brand new leadership, it would further establish that this a new state, different from Pakistan. This would be especially prominent given how most of the landed elite of Pakistan had fled the nation around the last months of the war, especially when the nuclear bomb left. This left a good opportunity for a political fresh start.
As for the Pakistani peoples' thoughts on the matter... it was unsure to be honest. Granted, all that was left was the Punjab and thus there would be a shared language between them along with some culture. At the same time, concerns over the religion would be part of it though safeguards could be put in, along with the Americans overseeing the process to ensure everything would go well in the drafting of legislation and elections. From the connections of the ISI to the possibility of a new state, they were quite open to the idea though primarily just to move beyond these past dangerous and wartorn years. The idea of it having Punjabi as a national language was also appealing and the promise of a secular state just added it. Combine this with renewed and reinforced relations to the US and economic support... it would be quite a promising solution after all. However, it would come at basically forsaking the idea of an Isalmist state and embracing secularism, along with a potential Sikh bent.
Over back in the Indian Punjab, they had to keep it secretive, but the idea of seceding now seemed like a powerful possibility. Yet it had to be handled correctly otherwise they would end up in serious trouble. Of course, the answer actually was to
how... They needed the confirmed support of the people to do so. And the only way to do was by voting. Of course, the logistics of trying to establish that, especially with the potential issues that the election system has. As such, plans were being underway by the local government to try and perform a referendum to guage what people were wanting, all in the background. All while the Indian election was going on in the background. While the election was filled with patriotic fervor from a war victory, the looming problems that laid above seemed like a sword. ready to fall at any time...