Austria inside: a Greater German Empire TL
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Yes I think so. William I was very unhappy that he wasn't Emperor of Germany in OTL. He was very angry at Bismarck that he was merely German Emperor (which would denote that he was an emperor who was German, not that he is Emperor over Germany, which Austria is seen as a part of) in 1871. Here, with Austria on board, there would be no objection that he would be Emperor of Germany since all German Lands would be encompassed.
AussieHawker
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Now, all Austria needs to do is invade all of northern Italy!
Why. It might happen if France and Italy square off against super germany.
I supposed that the Po River valley would be an immense asset to the growing economy of the Austrian Empire. And if they could take that, why not take the other side of the Italian peninsula? Trade would be much easier, the Germans wouldn't need to fear a blockade with the Adriatic.
Well, the problem here is that absorbing all the Po valley means the incorporation of too much Italian population (few millions I think).
The ideals behind the creation of the German Empire IOTL (as well as ITTL) is the typical 19th century concept of national unification (consolidation of a state-nation). Prussia (and Germany later) is not Austria, and German nationalists (at least by 1860-70s) do not want to incorporate large chunks of non-German territories, even if they could be profitable for them, because they wanted to build an all-German nation without the conflicts of holding multiple ethnic minorities (that's why they despised OTL Austria-Hungary).
Of course they can cope with key non-German minor territories like Trieste, Polish Upper Silesia or Francophone Metz as they did IOTL; or even holding Czechs and Slovenes, 'client' nations that were used to be ruled by Germans for centuries, and where many people had German as their second language.
But the Po valley would imply the incorporation of a huge bulk of non-German population mostly hostile to German rule, and, unlike Czechs and Slovenes, with a neighbour big country (Italy) which would claim for their return.
So, unless you depopulate the valley and settle it with Germans (highly unlikely to be doable at that time), the incorporation of the whole valley would cause much more headache to Germany than profits. A more realistic approach would be the annexation of some minor parts, especially the alpine valleys, thus guaranteeing that the accesses to Alpine Austria are under control. Some valleys at the Dolomites, as well as the Valtellina, had historical German communities, so they could cope with this easier.
Don't worry
Certainly, I am still making my mind about possible and realistic claims that Germany/Austria could do to Italy when this will be defeated in an eventual war by the 1890s.
As we discussed, all the Po Valley is too much, Germany would not want it and the other powers probably would not let it too. Even if possible, it would be a continuous problem for the Germans.
I have identified some possible claims:
- Valtellina: this is obvious, because Germans and Austrians called it 'Westtirol' (West Tyrol) and it was part of the Swiss Graubünden for many years. The cities of the valley have their own German toponyms and, even not a German-speaking territory, they were very used to German for trading.
- Domodossola: this city was known in German as Döm and had many ties with the German Valais but I ignore how much solid could be this claim.
- Parts of Friuli: there had been historical German communities in the Friulu for centuries, but they were small by the 1870s. Getting the city of Udine (this is pulling the border until the Tagliamento-Dolomites axis) could be too much? I'm not sure.
The point is not to neuter Austria completely. Austriia still possesses a navy in this TL and their main bases are in Trieste and Pola on the Istrian peninsula. These are Italian majority regions. if given to Italy, then Austria's ability to project power into the Adriatic and Mediterranean sea is gone.
IMO Austria is going to slowly drift into Germany's orbit and Germany will desire this strategic port and counterweight to being boxed in the North Sea by the British Fleet.
Re: your point about german-italian relations in the future, IMO, Italy was awarded Veneto in this timeline which is major prize that will satisfy most Italian irredentists. They will still not be happy and Austria should have ceded Trentino but retained sudtirol. They will have removed themselves of a troublesome minority and placated Italy somewhat.
However, for Germany/Austria's outpost on the Adriatic/Med to be worth anything of strategic value, they will need one friendly navy in the area as an aid and counterweight to the British navy and the French Mediterranean fleet. Croatia is going to be neutral or German influenced. The Ottomans at this point are too weak to be of serious naval help. Italy is the only power that could be swayed to Germany's side and help to prevent the Otranto Barrage that bottled up the Austrian Navy in the Adriatic in WW1. If Italy teams up with France and UK, Germany/Austria will never be able to project any power in the Med sea. IMO this is why it is important to keep Italy happy.
I also thought about this too. Note that on this map: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...a#mediaviewer/File:Greater_austria_ethnic.svg & http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Greater_Austria#mediaviewer/File:Greater_austria.png what Archduke Franz Ferdinand was proposing to give other German populated areas their own enclaves where they would be autonomous.
EDIT: ok I continued to read further and saw this was intentional. Carry on!
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Exactly, from a strategical point of view is not wise to deprive Austria from access to the Adriatic.
True, but this is 1867 and Prussians still can't envision these war strategies against the UK, which is not an enemy by the moment. The port of Trieste is important at this moment for trading, not for war.
Unlike the Veneto, Trentino was considered as a core part of an historical German land (Tyrol), where, incidentally, many Italians lived. Austria or Germany, on behalf of Tyrol interests, would never surrender this part unless defeat.
Even IOTL Bismarck prevented Italy to take territory from any German land (Tyrol or Carinthia), because Prussia wanted to be considered the protector of the interests of any German land (thus, confirming their pretended leadership in the German sphere).
And by the way, Italy would have been not placated until getting also Südtirol and Istria, so why bother to surrender Trentino?
Apart of being too early for these considerations (more proper of the WWI era), Italy would unavoidably team up with France at the end, because, from a Prussian point of view, Italy was a French creation. Despite the issue over the Papal States, Italy is the most likely ally of France in every military scenario. The best strategy, given that Prussia was just planning to attack France, is crushing Italy afterwards and keep it weak under German orbit, once France is tossed away.
I think that, if anything, the accession of the Austrian realms would make it even more difficult to adopt any other title formula than the one realized at Versailles in OTL: German Emperor. The Austrians will be even touchier than the Bavarians or other south German principalities, I would think.
Precisely so.
Bismarck at this point has no incentive whatsoever to cede anything else to Italy. He has considerable disincentives to do so, in fact.
The House of Savoy is in a tough spot. They've managed a coup in gaining the Veneto, but much of their remaining unredeemed irredenta are now under German imperial control, which makes the prospects of ever gaining them even more remote than under Austrian rule. Croatia's Dalmatian coast makes for a more inviting target, but only with Berlin's acquiescence. And I don't see that forthcoming.
But for the time being, Italy's focus will be on securing Rome. After that, its only real prospects for territorial aggrandizement will be picking off the Ottoman carcass. But I don't see why this would make an alliance with Germany less likely than it was in our time; now that it's sharing a border (and a sea) directly with Germany, it has more to fear from German belligerency than it does, say, French.
Would this turn of events actually weaken Prussia and Germany? In the short term is it possible that Britain or France would intervene in any subsequent Franco-Prussian War? If not, then in the longer term would Germany suffer some of the same problems Austria did in OTL, that is the propping up of the Hungarians and a collision course with Serbia (and Russia)?
I don't understand your question. Of course, France will participate in the Franco-Prussian War, otherwise would not be Franco-Prussian
But if you were referring to the UK, they have no interest at this stage, just like IOTL.
Well, a Greater Germany would not have the same problems of OTL AH in the Balkans, as their interests would not clash with the Ottomans or Russia. Serbia might have their conflicts with Croatia or Hungary, but not directly with Germany, so this also makes Russia and Germany to not be confonted by these issues (maybe others, but not Serbia ITTL).
Both Hungary and Croatia are supposed to be neutral countries in this scenario (not forever, maybe).
I think it's pretty hard to see how Germany would allow Croatia and Hungary to not stay in its orbit. They certainly can't afford for either to become allies of Russia or France. Otherwise, Germany risks complete encirclement.
On the other hand, there's no reason for Germany not to ally itself with Russia, since the big stumbling block in OTL, Austria, is no more. There is no reason for Russia and Germany to clash at all. Germany will allow Russia all the freedom to interfere in the Balkans, since the Balkans "isn't worth the bones of a Pomeranian Grenadier" and all that.
So Germany allies with Russia. Who will France ally with?
Nice TL!
But I think the things are not as clear cut as some think. Yes Austria is now reduced and will gravitate into the German/Prussian orbit. But that Imo is still into the future. For now they had a healthy shrinking course. But the old ties still remain. So any trouble for Croatia from Italy or Serbia will likely still be seen as an attack onto Austria...
The Russian situation also is not as nice as it seems. They will have massive problems with more Poles and the Japanese adventure should still be there. (Yes still far of but still)
Aditionaly all sides need time to consolidate for now. The still best of are Britain and France in terms of, lets say action points. The others used theirs to settle the Austrian Question.
So next we could see some kind of Franco-German-War. Most likely in the same vane as OTL as I do not think too much has changed (at least militaryily). After that we could get the "Großdeutsche Lösung" with an integrated Austria in some kind. Likely like some Bayernesque Sonderstatus...
Later on I imagine the trouble spot could be the Balkans or Suez... as the Austro-Germans could hold a significant minority (or even majority I dunno) to make a overture to the Ottomans interesting.
But I think the things are not as clear cut as some think. Yes Austria is now reduced and will gravitate into the German/Prussian orbit. But that Imo is still into the future. For now they had a healthy shrinking course. But the old ties still remain. So any trouble for Croatia from Italy or Serbia will likely still be seen as an attack onto Austria...
The Russian situation also is not as nice as it seems. They will have massive problems with more Poles and the Japanese adventure should still be there. (Yes still far of but still)
Aditionaly all sides need time to consolidate for now. The still best of are Britain and France in terms of, lets say action points. The others used theirs to settle the Austrian Question.
So next we could see some kind of Franco-German-War. Most likely in the same vane as OTL as I do not think too much has changed (at least militaryily). After that we could get the "Großdeutsche Lösung" with an integrated Austria in some kind. Likely like some Bayernesque Sonderstatus...
Later on I imagine the trouble spot could be the Balkans or Suez... as the Austro-Germans could hold a significant minority (or even majority I dunno) to make a overture to the Ottomans interesting.
Well, I said they are supposed to be neutral, but they will be obviously not that much in reality. Just like OTL Belgium (which was supposed to be a neutral country before WWI but it wasn't).
However, Germany would not want to commit too much on their interests for not clashing with Russia in the Balkans.
Yes, the key point IITL is that Germany/Austria will try to keep the best possible relations with Russia and avoid eventual conflicts caused by the Balkan issues. IOTL was not possible due to the stupid foreign policies of AH, but ITTL this has been butterflied away.
Thanks
Yes, you are right. However, Croatia is supposed to be a neutral state, so Italy and Serbia must be careful. Clashes with Italy are unavoidable as Prussia sees it as the most potential French ally, but Prussia will try to push Austria away from conflicts with Serbia.
Well, the part of Galicia they have absorbed ITTL is mostly populated by Ukrainians. It would be more troubling if they had absorbed Cracow, but the area of Cracow is now a separate duchy tied to Bohemia-Moravia. Russia would have prefered to get a bit more of Poles rather than accepting an independent or semi-independent Polish entity.
More or less. But with some surprises on store
Well, I can advance (spoiler alert!), because I stated it in the pre-TL thread, that Bismarck will not stay as chancelor once the Empire is formed. This means that the German foreign policy would be quite different from that point onwards...
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