Austria inside: a Greater German Empire TL

[Tonifranz]

Well, I can advance (spoiler alert!), because I stated it in the pre-TL thread, that Bismarck will not stay as chancelor once the Empire is formed. This means that the German foreign policy would be quite different from that point onwards...

Well, Bismarck was quite successful in projecting the German Empire in OTL as a satiated power to other great powers. Will his successor be as adept as projecting that image?

And what will happen when Russia clash with the Ottomans? If I were Germany, I'll support Greater Bulgaria, the Treaty of San Stefano, and even support Russia gaining Constantinople!

In other words, Germany should hitch itself to Russia. With Russia in the German orbit, France would not dare to even think about revenge on Germany.

 

[Mario]

In other words, Germany should hitch itself to Russia. With Russia in the German orbit, France would not dare to even think about revenge on Germany.

Yes, that is the point. Germany would not bother Russia with disputes in the Balkans and would not bother the UK trying to challenge their overseas dominance.

 

[Mario]

CHAPTER II: 1868. AUSTRIA UP, HUNGARY DOWN​

1868 is the first year for both Austria and Hungary as separate kingdoms. Austria has a new king, Rudolf III, but his father is still the regent because Rudolf is still underage. Rudolf’s uncle, Karl Ludwig, is the Prince of Bohemia-Moravia and Duke of Cracow, and now also member of the North German Confederation, stating a sort of dual allegiance to both Prussia and Austria. Meanwhile, Laszló Teleki de Szék has been crowned King Ladislaus VI of Hungary; however, the fate of both kingdoms will be very different during this year.

Austria starts to recover from the damages caused by the war against Prussia. The Prussian troops retreat to their homeland and reparations are soon in full swing; however, in Tyrol, the Garibaldi’s volunteers refuse to retreat out of the areas they invaded during the war. Austria threats Italy with blocking the handover of Veneto if the Italian volunteers don’t abandon the southern areas of Tyrol. The Italian government tries to argue that the volunteers are acting by their own and don’t obey their orders.

With the consent of Prussia, Austria launches a surprise attack against the volunteers in June. The volunteers then flock to the city of Rovereto, where they are besieged by the Austrians. Despite the Italian protests, Prussia warns its government to do not resume any military action on Austrian soil. Finally, the Austrian troops crush the volunteers and evict them from all Tyrol. This little victory restores some morale to the damaged and reduced Austrian Army and reinforces the recovering ties between the former enemies Prussia and Austria in front of Italy, for the French concern.

While things in Austria seem to return to the right way, Hungary steps in chaos and anarchy when the proposed Constitution fails to be passed in March. The factions supporting Ferenc Déak as prime minister against the provisional one, Lajos Kossuth, manage to impose their objections to the Constitution and Kossuth resigns as a consequence of the failure.

Considering that the Déak’s faction is openly hostile to the policies of King Ladislaus VI, the King and Kossuth, fearing a coup d’état, flee from Buda and establish themselves at their loyal feud of Klausenburg (Cluj), in Transylvania. The political division is quickly replicated at the young Hungarian Army and the following power vacuum leads to a general state of anarchy; the multiple ethnic minorities will soon take advantage of the situation for creating a bunch of breakaway entities.


Ferenc Déak, prime minister of Hungary after Ladislaus VI depart.

As the failed Constitution only granted autonomy for the Transylvanian Saxons (following the compromises of the Conference of Prague), the Banat Swabians demanded Buda to extend the autonomy to their lands around Temeschburg (Temesvár/Timisoara). Realizing that neither of the two factions were keen on the idea, the Banat Swabians established their own ‘autonomous entity’ (April 1868), just to be upgraded to the Free State of the Swabian Banat (August 1868) when the few Hungarian forces withdrew the area, unable to cope with the situation.

Several other minorities follow the same path of the Banat Swabians, creating many different kinds of breakaway entities, like lordships in the mountainous north (West Slovakia and South Galicia), duchies theoretically tied to the King (but de facto independent), free states, self-proclaimed kingdoms and even a complex federation of minor states (the Szekler Federation, in East Transylvania).

The definite division arrives in November, when the recomposed provisional government in Buda, under the new leadership of Prime Minister Ferenc Déak, announces the decision of overthrowing King Ladislaus VI and picking a different King from the Hungarian magnates. Then, Lajos Kossuth proclaims Ladislaus as Hungarian King of Transylvania in Klausenburg, thus becoming himself prime minister of the alternate kingdom (Ladislaus has not renounced to his right to be king of all Hungary).


Lajos Kossuth, prime minister of the self-proclaimed Kingdom of Transylvania.

This chaotic situation leads Russia to suggest a military intervention, despite Hungarian neutrality, to the other European powers. Prussia and Austria are reluctant to intervene, but agree with Russia to send an ultimatum to Buda: if they do not recompose a solid government that could handle the compromises acquired in Prague in a 24-months-term, they will take the right to intervene in Hungary.

Map of Hungary at the end of 1868:​

- In pale yellow, the areas under control of the government in Buda.
- In orange, the breakaway entities.​

 

[mlp]

hm.
It was called Buda at the time?
nice update, by the way.

 

[Mario]

hm.
It was called Buda at the time?
nice update, by the way.

Yes, it was called Buda ('Ofen' in German) because it was not merged with Pest until the following decade.

Thanks

 

[Mikestone8]

If Hungary was as disunited as this, how did it ever become independent in the first place?

 

[Sian]

If Hungary was as disunited as this, how did it ever become independent in the first place?

because even as disargeeing they are on everything else, they were united in the thought that it shouldn't be Austria that sat on top, so they probably argeed (more or less implicitly) to back a independence with the appearent likiest contender on top, taking the discussion later how to actually rule.

 

[Mario]

If Hungary was as disunited as this, how did it ever become independent in the first place?

because even as disargeeing they are on everything else, they were united in the thought that it shouldn't be Austria that sat on top, so they probably argeed (more or less implicitly) to back a independence with the appearent likiest contender on top, taking the discussion later how to actually rule.

As Sian says, because of the usual mistake of 'ok, we are united on demanding independence, let see how rule the mess after that'. We have many examples in History about this.

IOTL Hungary was not ready for full independence in 1867. No matter this, many politicians and the mainstream populace demanded it anyway; Déak was wise enough to impose the Ausgleich instead.

But given the different circumstances ITTL, full independence is unanymously demanded and then granted. Result: Hungary struggle to rule themselves and rule the other zillion minorities inside, which will obvioulsy take advantage of the disputes in Buda for make their own way.

 

[Mikestone8]

But given the different circumstances ITTL, full independence is unanymously demanded and then granted. Result: Hungary struggle to rule themselves and rule the other zillion minorities inside, which will obvioulsy take advantage of the disputes in Buda for make their own way.

You mean unanimously demanded by the Magyars? They are barely 50% of the population, and the other 50% have no reason to support them against Vienna - or indeed against anybody.

 

[Mario]

You mean unanimously demanded by the Magyars? They are barely 50% of the population, and the other 50% have no reason to support them against Vienna - or indeed against anybody.

True, demanded by the Magyars.

The other minorities have no reason to support either Vienna or Buda; however they could expect (or be deceived) that with the change of status they might gain some political weight. The Slovaks, for example, could think that they could have more political weight in a lesser Kingdom than in a big Empire.

So that's why the approach here for the Hungarian minorities it's just 'wait and see'; when they realize how a big mess the new Kingdom is becoming, then they would try to make their own.

 

[elkarlo]

Subscribed. I like AH but it too needs to be thrown under a bus now and again

 

[LordKalvan]

Obviously UK and France accept without making any fuss the complete rearrangement of Central Europe, while Russia is happy with the bone tossed to it

What is being described here is so different from what is reasonable to expect from the concert of Europe that it is not even funny.

 

[AussieHawker]

Obviously UK and France accept without making any fuss the complete rearrangement of Central Europe, while Russia is happy with the bone tossed to it

What is being described here is so different from what is reasonable to expect from the concert of Europe that it is not even funny.

The UK is in it's mini isolation from Europe. France is not powerful or foolhardy enough to try and attack prussia and it's german allies. Finally russia sees this as firstly a way to break their rival and get a chance to expand it's infulence in the balkans.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

So without the Habsburgs to keep them in line the Magyar aristocracy manages to blow up their own kingdom? I'm not surprised.

 

[Mario]

Obviously UK and France accept without making any fuss the complete rearrangement of Central Europe, while Russia is happy with the bone tossed to it

What is being described here is so different from what is reasonable to expect from the concert of Europe that it is not even funny.

So what would UK, France and Russia do in this case, according to you? An immediate anticipated version of WWI? The Empire has not even proclaimed yet!

1) UK does not care about those Central European affaires, they will only intervene if their interests are in danger.
2) France is set to confront the German states in the short time, you know.
3) Why Russia should be outraged? Their interests in the Balkans are not damaged, and remember that the Russians are reluctant to engage in international conflicts because Crimea is still recent.

The UK is in it's mini isolation from Europe. France is not powerful or foolhardy enough to try and attack prussia and it's german allies. Finally russia sees this as firstly a way to break their rival and get a chance to expand it's infulence in the balkans.

Absolutely this. Serbia is clearly benefited with this scenario (no Habsburg AH, but a weak Hungary and weak Croatia to deal with).

 

[Mikestone8]

True, demanded by the Magyars.

The other minorities have no reason to support either Vienna or Buda; however they could expect (or be deceived) that with the change of status they might gain some political weight. The Slovaks, for example, could think that they could have more political weight in a lesser Kingdom than in a big Empire.

So that's why the approach here for the Hungarian minorities it's just 'wait and see'; when they realize how a big mess the new Kingdom is becoming, then they would try to make their own.

Well, after their experiences of 1848-9 wouldn't they have to be extremely dim-witted to look for anything from the Magyars except a kick in the teeth?

And while we're on the subject, exactly what bargaining power do the Magyars have? There has been no Hungarian Army since the defeat of Kossuth two decades ago, so they have no military force except whatever rag-tag militia they can scrape up for the occasion. How exactly are they able to "demand" anything"? They belong to whichever army reaches Buda first. So would any other peoples see any particular advantage in allying with them?

 

[Nivek]

Ouch that was bad, hope the Hungarian rebuild their kingdom faster to avoid some damned rumanina have ideas with the Banat and Transylvannia and hope Serbia not try something stupid

And those who talk german-russian alliance..russia only care itself, france payed their industrialization and can do it again and germany can not afford to lose hungary or Croatia.

So far waiting how the Hungary Nation unfold itself, and how certain spanish crisis will unfold

 

[Mario]

Well, after their experiences of 1848-9 wouldn't they have to be extremely dim-witted to look for anything from the Magyars except a kick in the teeth?

And while we're on the subject, exactly what bargaining power do the Magyars have? There has been no Hungarian Army since the defeat of Kossuth two decades ago, so they have no military force except whatever rag-tag militia they can scrape up for the occasion. How exactly are they able to "demand" anything"? They belong to whichever army reaches Buda first. So would any other peoples see any particular advantage in allying with them?

If the Hungarians revolt again like in 1848-9, as they treatened to ITTL, which army is going to be there to crush it? Austria is not able with Prussian occupation and Russia does not want to upset Prussia.

1867 is not 1849.

 

[Mikestone8]

If the Hungarians revolt again like in 1848-9, as they treatened to ITTL, which army is going to be there to crush it? Austria is not able with Prussian occupation and Russia does not want to upset Prussia. [/quite]

Why would a Prussian army in Bohemia prevent Austrian action against Hungary, any more than it prevented such action against Italy when the latter invaded Tyrol? Prussia has no political interests at stake.

1867 is not 1849.

Indeed not. In 1848/9 there was a separate Hungarian Army, which supported Kossuth. In 1867 it does not exist. Hungary belongs to whatever regular army is sitting on it.

 

[Mario]

Why would a Prussian army in Bohemia prevent Austrian action against Hungary, any more than it prevented such action against Italy when the latter invaded Tyrol? Prussia has no political interests at stake

Indeed not. In 1848/9 there was a separate Hungarian Army, which supported Kossuth. In 1867 it does not exist. Hungary belongs to whatever regular army is sitting on it.

Read it carefully. ITTL the Prussian Army is in Bohemia AND Austria proper, so no, they can't do anything until Prussia retreats in 1868.