Fernando d'Ávalos betrays Charles V, becomes king of Naples?

Vinization

Fernando d'Ávalos was a Neapolitan condottiero of Aragonese origin who fought in the Italian Wars, most specifically the War of the League of Cambrai and the War of 1521-1526. He was, during the latter, one of the main commanders of the imperial army, and played an important role in the victories of Bicocca and Pavia. After the latter battle, he was approached by an agent of Pope Clement VII, who offered him the crown of Naples if he betrayed Charles V, but he refused after some consideration and revealed the plot to the emperor. What if he accepted it?

Given the context of when the offer was made IOTL (a total Habsburg victory on the peninsula), I doubt d'Ávalos would've gone very far if he betrayed Charles in those circumstances. So here's a different scenario: the French score a big victory that lets them keep control of Milan, and d'Ávalos is, fairly or not, blamed for the defeat, creating a rift between him and the emperor. Thus, when Clement offers him the crown of Naples, he accepts. Could he take it from Charles? Would Francis I help him, or would he try to take Naples for himself? Considering his personality, I think he'd probably go for the latter option.

Assuming the conspirators succeed and Charles loses control of southern Italy, would he be on friendlier terms with the Protestants? He and Clement had a very rocky relationship IOTL, which I assume would be even worse after this act of betrayal.

@Tarabas @Milites @LordKalvan @The Undead Martyr
 
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Vinization

How well could Ávalos do as king of Naples (just the continental part, without Sicily)? Would he be seen as an usurper, or would the Pope's support be enough to give him at least some legitimacy? Who could he marry? My guess is he'd get paired with either a French princess or a Medici one - assuming there are any available, of course.
 

Vinization

One last question: How could the Protestant Reformation as a whole develop if Clement isn't taken prisoner by Charles V, beyond the whole Henry-VIII-may-get-his-marriage-annulled thing? Could this ironically make the Protestants' position stronger, if the papacy retains real political power and spends its capital on power plays in Italy instead of on stuff like the Council of Trent?

@LordKalvan @Tarabas @Milites @The Undead Martyr @alexmilman
 

The Undead Martyr

The Papacy in this case will still probably lean towards the Habsburgs given the probable focus against the Turks vis a vis Austria.

Beyond England staying Catholic, I don't think that the Reformation itself would be substantially altered, in part because it was already underway at this point.
 

isabella

Vinization said:
How well could Ávalos do as king of Naples (just the continental part, without Sicily)? Would he be seen as an usurper, or would the Pope's support be enough to give him at least some legitimacy? Who could he marry? My guess is he'd get paired with either a French princess or a Medici one - assuming there are any available, of course.
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He was a local noble and was already long married to the Roman noblewoman Vittoria Colonna but they were childless
 

isabella

Vinization said:
Huh, she'd be in her mid thirties if Ávalos becomes king (1520s), so I wonder if she was still able to get pregnant.
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Pretty unlikely. Fernando will most likely adopt his younger cousin Alfonso as heir (as he had done in OTL). As Alfonso had married in 1523 a granddaughter of Ferdinand I of Naples (though his illegitimate son Fernando, Duke of Montalto) he would have a good tie to the previous dynasty who will likely help him to keep Naples
1-800-wandsthetic said:
And he will annul this marriage once he is king as he will need heirs
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No way, he would never do that. Him betraying Charles V is barely credible, leaving his wife (to which he was very close since forever as they were betrothed in their childhood) is pretty ASB. Also Vittoria belonged to one of the most powerful families of Rome who were close allies of Avalos…
 

Vinization

isabella said:
Pretty unlikely. Fernando will most likely adopt his younger cousin Alfonso as heir (as he had done in OTL). As Alfonso had married in 1523 a granddaughter of Ferdinand I of Naples (though his illegitimate son Fernando, Duke of Montalto) he would have a good tie to the previous dynasty who will likely help him to keep Naples

No way, he would never do that. Him betraying Charles V is barely credible, leaving his wife (to which he was very close since forever as they were betrothed in their childhood) is pretty ASB. Also Vittoria belonged to one of the most powerful families of Rome who were close allies of Avalos…
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But what if Alfonso isn't available as an heir for one reason or another?
 

30PrincesAndAKing

Vinization said:
Would he be seen as an usurper, or would the Pope's support be enough to give him at least some legitimacy?
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Naples was a papal fief; in theory, the Pope can nominate anybody as the King of Naples (in practice, that person needs to have a sizable army and be willing to occupy Naples for an extended period of time). Naples was also changing hands left right and center during this period (from Trastamara to Valois to Trastamara again, then to a different branch of the Trastamara and finally the Habsburgs), so legitimacy was thin on the ground for all the parties who could potentially claim it.

I'm not saying everyone would be happy with the arrangement, mind you, but I don't think it's necessarily ASB to assume the arrangement could have stuck under certain circumstances.
 

Vinization

Out of curiosity, could Naples find itself allying with the Habsburgs to oppose Ottoman advances on the Mediterranean?
 

colleoni

isabella said:
Well, he would adopt another relative. Surely he would NOT divorce from his beloved Vittoria
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I am not familiar with the position of all players, but in order to weaken d'Ávalos loyalty to Charles V and in the same stroke make way for a second (presumably fertile) second wife, would it be possible to make Vittoria's death (unwittingly) Charles's fault?
I'm thinking e.g. ordering her confined to an unhealthy location and/or to have her odered to travel to X (and the travel proved deadly). Would that be possible, if not likely?
 

isabella

colleoni said:
I am not familiar with the position of all players, but in order to weaken d'Ávalos loyalty to Charles V and in the same stroke make way for a second (presumably fertile) second wife, would it be possible to make Vittoria's death (unwittingly) Charles's fault?
I'm thinking e.g. ordering her confined to an unhealthy location and/or to have her odered to travel to X (and the travel proved deadly). Would that be possible, if not likely?
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Pretty unlikely. She would be in Rome in this timeframe (at the worst in the lands of her husband or brother) and would know what was happening. Also her brother, Ascanio Colonna was one of the most important imperial supporter in Rome…
 

colleoni

isabella said:
Pretty unlikely. She would be in Rome in this timeframe (at the worst in the lands of her husband or brother) and would know what was happening. Also her brother, Ascanio Colonna was one of the most important imperial supporter in Rome…
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Thank you for the reply!
Although it squashes the chance of a character-driven betrayal, dammit. ^_^;;
 
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