Most plausible way for a South-North split in the Early American Republic and the fate of the Ohio Country in such a scenario?

[WaywardHillHaints]

While break-ups of the early United States into several independent republics is a relatively common timeline trope the breakup of the early Union into two American confederations, which seems like a distinctly more plausible reality, at least if going by the words of those living at the time, isn't necessarily underexplored but less commonly written. The basic idea is that a Southern republic which features universal white male suffrage, expanded democracy, and is vigorously pro-Western expansion and anti-British is counterposed to a Northern republic which features limited suffrage, limited republicanism and only moderately democratic, ambivalent about Western expansion and very anti-French.

My main question is what events could most plausibly lead to such a disunion and more specifically what might the fate of the Ohio Country be in such a scenario?

 

[Devoid]

Not the biggest expert or even amateur on early U.S. history, but here are my, perhaps undercooked, takes.

The basic idea is that a Southern republic which features universal white male suffrage, expanded democracy, and is vigorously pro-Western expansion and anti-British is counterposed to a Northern republic which features limited suffrage, limited republicanism and only moderately democratic, ambivalent about Western expansion and very anti-French.

So a Jeffersonian/Jacksonian South against a Hamiltonian North?

My main question is what events could most plausibly lead to such a disunion

You could have a presidential election, where Jefferson and Hamilton are the candidates, with an 1876-style result that leads to civil war. The civil war ends in stalemate and so both north and south cannot conquer each other; eventually the war peters out Korean War-style. Both nations continue to claim each other but eventually an understanding, if no formal peace agreement, is reached; they occasionally go to war with each other but neither is ever able to fully conquer the other, especially as their national identities slowly diverge. Not sure if they ever formally disclaim each other's territory.

what might the fate of the Ohio Country be in such a scenario?

There's a million factors that could affect this. I doubt either north or south have the ability to control the place, but neither will be willing to formally give it up. Personally, I think there are three plausible options: one, Britain ends up de facto occupying it once it realizes neither of the two republics has the ability to control it and eventually buys off both republics to formally annex it; two, it ends up as one or more independent Native American states (though this is likely dependent on British, Canadian, northern, and southern goodwill); three, American settlers from north and/or south create a third republic in the space, possibly creating a Midwestern republic with mixed politics more similar to the OTL US 1840's politics compared to TTL's Hamiltonian consensus in the north or Jeffersonian consensus in the south. Depends on what you want to do with the space.

 

[Analytical Engine]

My main question is what events could most plausibly lead to such a disunion and more specifically what might the fate of the Ohio Country be in such a scenario?

That very much depends on what you mean by "north" and "south".

Where is the border? The Mason-Dixon Line? the Virginia-North Carolina border? The Potomac?

 

[Don Corleone]

Was there any discussion of a free womb law at the Constitutional Convention?

With that provision you can keep Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia on board while Georgia and South Carolina don't ratify. In OTL North Carolina came aboard only after the Constitution was a fait accompli, with only Rhode Island still out. They might not come aboard here, so you have a second country with GA/SC/NC.

With the objections in the South you might see the requirement be 8 states instead of 9. Three New England states, plus PA, NY, NJ, and any two of VA/MD/DE gets you there, or RI comes aboard if they're needed to get us to 8. That gives you the northern country.

The Northwest Territories will be of little interest to the South, but they'll want to hold on to their western claims.

New Orleans won't be contiguous to either country because Florida extends all the way to Baton Rouge. The South won't have the means to make an offer. The North might but won't have the same ability as OTL to make the Louisiana Purchase. If they do still pull it off, we might see the South pick off Florida bit by bit and eventually either negotiate use of the Port of New Orleans or buy a portion of the city on the east bank.

 

[Analytical Engine]

The Northwest Territories will be of little interest to the South, but they'll want to hold on to their western claims.

Depending on which country Virginia ends up in, the South may have very strong interests in the Northwest, since Virginia claimed all of it

New Orleans won't be contiguous to either country because Florida extends all the way to Baton Rouge. The South won't have the means to make an offer. The North might but won't have the same ability as OTL to make the Louisiana Purchase. If they do still pull it off, we might see the South pick off Florida bit by bit and eventually either negotiate use of the Port of New Orleans or buy a portion of the city on the east bank.

I can see canals to the Ohio River and the Great Lakes still being considered, for connections.

However, depending on the situation, the north may end up building railways instead of canals

 

[WaywardHillHaints]

So a Jeffersonian/Jacksonian South against a Hamiltonian North?

Yes, essentially that. The divide would naturally not be entirely geographic but given the higher support for Jeffersonianism in the South and Hamiltonianism in the North, I imagine that eventually a latitudinal divide would emerge, if nothing less than to get the bleeding to stop and peace to resume.

You could have a presidential election, where Jefferson and Hamilton are the candidates, with an 1876-style result that leads to civil war. The civil war ends in stalemate and so both north and south cannot conquer each other; eventually the war peters out Korean War-style.

Something along these lines was my main idea, specifically in regards to a civil war that peters out into a virtual stalemate with both factions emerging as independent republics.

That very much depends on what you mean by "north" and "south".

Where is the border? The Mason-Dixon Line? the Virginia-North Carolina border? The Potomac?

The parameters of what I had in mind here would mean that "the South" would more or less be joined by Democratic-Republicans in the north, but the strength of the Federalists there would cause at least the majority of the DemReps in the North to not carry the day, leaving a divide between the two republics along, ideally, the Mason-Dixon or Potomac. Though I did toy with Pennsylvania, at least the southern half of it from what was the old counties in the far west that Virginia claimed up to the Susquehanna River in the York-Cumberland County area, perhaps being in the Jeffersonian republic, haven't a clue if such a thing could work though and I'm fine with the Jeffersonian Republic just strictly being Virginia-Maryland and what's south and west of that.

Was there any discussion of a free womb law at the Constitutional Convention?

I'm not sure. I know Jefferson brought up the 1784 Ordinances to try and get all western states to be free states in an early display of free soilism. Though this is meant to be more a Jeffersonian Republic that is "Southern" insofar as that's where the DemReps could mount the strongest authority and rule rather than "Southern" in the CSA, slave-nationalist way. I'm explicitly trying to avoid too many proto-CSA parallels here, even though inevitably slavery will be the main industry of the republic.

The Northwest Territories will be of little interest to the South, but they'll want to hold on to their western claims.

Virginia's western claims included basically the entirety of the Northwest Territories which is why the question arose, and since Virginia is the most Jeffersonian of colonies at the time, it'd be a little weird to not have them in the Jeffersonian republic. My thoughts were maybe following the Mason-Dixon across and leaving the southern half to the South and northern half to the North or Britain, or creating some alternate line to effectuate a similar purpose if the M-D is a little too much of the Northwest Territories, mainly because the Ohio River was the main carrier of settlers to the Northwest at the time and most early settlers came by way of Virginia or what was later Kentucky but if that seems unlikely or too hard to achieve then I suppose the Ohio River being the border serves as a good natural barrier between the republics.

New Orleans won't be contiguous to either country because Florida extends all the way to Baton Rouge.

In regards to New Orleans, I was thinking a war between the Southern Republic and Spain would basically be inevitable, unless Britain takes N.O and then a war between the Southern Republic and Britain is on the table. The southwesterners will want N.O badly, the difficulty of getting commerce over the Appalachian Mountains is a very hard problem to surmount.

 

[Mikestone8]

While break-ups of the early United States into several independent republics is a relatively common timeline trope the breakup of the early Union into two American confederations, which seems like a distinctly more plausible reality, at least if going by the words of those living at the time, isn't necessarily underexplored but less commonly written. The basic idea is that a Southern republic which features universal white male suffrage, expanded democracy, and is vigorously pro-Western expansion and anti-British is counterposed to a Northern republic which features limited suffrage, limited republicanism and only moderately democratic, ambivalent about Western expansion and very anti-French.

My main question is what events could most plausibly lead to such a disunion and more specifically what might the fate of the Ohio Country be in such a scenario?

Perhaps if the Great Compromise (giving all states an equal vote in the Senate, doesn't get through (iirc iit finally passed 5-4). And as a result the smaller states refuse to ratify.

This would have been dangerous as, except for GA, all the smaller states lay north of the Potomac, and until its delegation left, NY had been siding with them. The MA delegation was evenly split, so that north of the Potomac only PA opposed the Compromise. Thus we'd be ominously close to a north-south split.

 

[WaywardHillHaints]

Perhaps if the Great Compromise (giving all states an equal vote in the Senate, doesn't get through (iirc iit finally passed 5-4). And as a result the smaller states refuse to ratify.

This would have been dangerous as, except for GA, all the smaller states lay north of the Potomac, and until its delegation left, NY had been siding with them. The MA delegation was evenly split, so that north of the Potomac only PA opposed the Compromise. Thus we'd be ominously close to a north-south split.

This could work, or be among one of the instances that lead to a split here, I was thinking moreso something after the ratification of the Constitution but if that period is the best time for something like this to occur then I'll look more there.

 

[Gabingston]

Anything other than the Ohio River is border gore IMO.