I live in Russia, I've encountered plenty of men and women with the name Nikita. Howevere if you're talking from the technical standpoint of gender as it applies to names in anguages then yeah you're not wrong.
Russian too, never met a woman with the name Nikita, lol.

Moreover, even in the Russian article on wiki about this name there are no female examples: https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Никита

On the other hand, the Bolsheviks were famous for their love of weird names (you can read about it, for example, here: https://diletant.media/articles/25818549/), so let's assume that little girl Nikita was named that on purpose by her parents)))
 
USSR – A Less Perfect Union 1956 - 1978

Garrison

Donor

Postscript USSR – A Less Perfect Union 1956 - 1978​

The end of the Manchurian Conflict spelt the end of the triumvirate that had led the USSR since the death of Stalin. Within weeks of the ceasefire Lavrenti Beria was removed from his post and was tried for a multitude of crimes in 1957, followed by a swift and inevitable execution. Nikita Khruschev had been manoeuvring to take sole charge for some time and if Molotov was expecting to secure his position by removing Beria he was swiftly disabused of the notion. He avoided the worst of what happened to Beria, simply being dispatched to a meaningless administrative post in the Soviet Far East. Now in possession of sole leadership of the both the Communist Party and the Politburo Khruschev set about trying to unravel some of the most counterproductive policies put in place during Stalin’s rule to put the Soviet economy on a sounder footing, though still firmly in line with Communist doctrine. When it came to foreign policy Khruschev was not so inclined to embrace reform, indeed he felt that the USSR had allowed itself to be ‘penned in’ by the USA and its allies and failed to keep a firm grip over its own satellites, which led directly to the Manchurian Communists ignoring Moscow and very nearly dragging the USSR into a global war.

Khruschev was also determined that the USSR should surpass the USA in technological matters, or at least be seen to do so by the rest of the world. This saw considerable pressure put upon Soviet scientists and engineers in the fields of nuclear energy and rocketry. Khruschev’s demands brought greater resources to bear but also led to demands for spectacular successes that could be spun as such for propaganda purposes, regardless of their actual scientific or technological value. This policy arguably backfired in the longer term as it served to spur on a US space program that had arguably become somewhat complacent in the late 1950s.

Another sign of Khruschev’s bellicose stance in the international sphere was decision in 1957 to abandon the pretence that the Polish territories occupied by the USSR would be reunited with Poland once it stopped its oppression of Communism. This territory would now be distributed between the Ukraine and Byelorussia, ‘for the benefit of all the workers in these regions and their future prosperity’. This provoked outrage in Poland and its NATO allies, which Khruschev dismissed as ‘sabre rattling’ by a collection of warmongers, once again trying to use the atomic bombing of Dulu’er as a stick to beat the west with. The integration of the occupied territory into the USSR led to a fresh surge of people trying to flee to Poland, which provided the west with a considerable counterargument, especially given the brutal treatment meted out to those caught trying to cross the border.

This hardline on those trying to flee from the Bratislava Pact countries extended to the Slovak Democratic Republic itself. The huge economic disparity that had opened up between the states that had once been Czechoslovakia was impossible to ignore and by 1961 the simmering antipathy between the Czechs and Slovaks had mellowed considerably as the Czechs saw how the Slovaks were being treated and rumours abounded about the fate of the officers who had led the Slovak Army during its uprising against the Nazis, with multiple sources claiming that they had received the same treatment as the Polish officers in the Katyn forest. These reports would be hotly denied by Moscow, but accounts that finally became public during the 1980s unfortunately proved that they were true. Things came to a head in March of 1961 when a new reformist leader assumed power in the SDR. Milan Hudec was sympathetic to the idea that the SDR needed stronger economic ties with the Czech Republic and that relaxing restrictions on travel between the two countries would reduce the desire to emigrate. In conjunction with economic liberalization Hudec offered a clear alternative for how the Bratislava Pact countries could co-exist and compete with their capitalist neighbours. Despite Khruschev’s own economic reforms his response to the Hudec program was ruthless. The Red Army forces stationed in the SDR were mobilized on the 16th of July 1961 and were substantially reinforced from the Ukraine and Hungary. Elements of the Slovak Army rallied to defence of the Hudec government, and the ordinary citizenry took to the streets of Bratislava and other cities to resist. Tragically it was all in vain, after eighteen days of fighting Hudec was ousted and the uprising was completely crushed.

The west and most non-aligned countries were horrified, but Khruschev was unrepentant, claiming that the trouble had been instigated by the Czechs, who had attempted to create a counterrevolution in Slovakia to bring it back under their rule. This was also the line adopted by the new regime in Bratislava and members of the Hudec government found themselves tried for a variety of offences ranging from corruption to sedition. Hudec was not among their number as he died on the 15th of September 1961, allegedly the victim of a heart attack.

Khruschev’s crackdown might have appeased hardliners in the Kremlin to a degree, there were however those who suggested that his own efforts at economic reform had served to encourage the Slovaks and others in the Bratislava Pact and his opponents gained considerably more support after the US intervention in Cuba in October 1961. The USSR had been caught completely off-guard by the US action. That President Johnson would take a hardline against the prospect of socialist revolutionaries taking over Cuba had been a given, with the assumption being this would take the form of more arms and advisors, not the deployment of two US divisions, supported by massive airpower to, ‘stabilize Cuba and suppress the terrorist movement that threatened US security’. The rebels who had for a moment seemed on the brink of victory were broken and scattered, with the survivors forced to retreat deep into the Cuban countryside. Demonstrating a remarkable lack of self-awareness Khruschev launched into a series of blistering attacks on US imperialism, which rather than drawing equally vehement response from Washington was instead met with derision and a great deal of sarcasm. In a speech on the topic President Johnson bluntly stated, albeit somewhat inaccurately, ‘we intervened to preserve the legitimate government of Cuba, the Soviets invaded Slovakia to remove one’.

The diplomatic debacle over Cuba is often cited as the beginning of the end for Khruschev, the reality was though that he shrugged it off and pointed the finger at the failure of the intelligence services to provide advanced warning. A more significant issue for Khruschev was that his efforts to reform the economy had been thwarted by elements in the Soviet bureaucracy, the notorious ‘nomenklatura’. Measures intended to improve the performance of Soviet industry had been absorbed by the bureaucracy and turned into a further layer of red tape that stifled any effort to streamline production and improve quality, while preserving their own power and privilege.

The end of Khruschev’s time as General Secretary came in April 1964 as he was forced to stand down, officially retiring and being granted a pension, an apartment in Moscow and a charming Dacha in the countryside. None of this made him any less bitter about his treatment and he wrote a warts and all memoir that was smuggled to the west and published after his death on the 2nd of February 1972. His successor was Leonid Brezhnev, who presented an altogether more stolid face to the world, which was a relief to many in the west after years of dealing with the mercurial Khruschev, but he was no more inclined to explore détente with the USA than his predecessor, at least in the latter half of the 1960s. Brezhnev’s first priorities were to tackle the ongoing issues with the Soviet economy, though as he was unwilling to address the issues of bureaucracy and ideologically motivated policies that constantly undermined productivity and growth he made no progress during his time in office and the Soviet economy slid into a slow decline. Brezhnev was less enthusiastic about the sort of spectacular propaganda exercises in space that Khruschev had demanded from the Bureaus responsible for the space program, however Brezhnev found himself committing more resources to the space program regardless of his personal feelings as the fact that the USA was opening a clear gap in capability was a genuine worry since, control of the ultimate high ground could hand the Americans an unassailable military advantage. He did at least insist that the Bureaus were streamlined, and certain projects curtailed. As much as the engineers might have objected this proved to be a sound move by Brezhnev.

Like his predecessor Brezhnev had to stamp his authority on the Bratislava Pact nations, and the greatest challenge to his leadership came in 1967 from Hungary. The country had always been marked by a constant low-level discontent over Communist rule and had it not been for the fate of the Slovak reformists the Hungarians would probably have sought to follow their lead, though whether this would have placated the Hungarian people is debatable. The liberalization in Slovakia had been essentially a top-down affair, and the Hudec government had still been Communist after all, they simply sought to adopt a more humane stance and to demonstrate that Communism could promote prosperity for its people. In Hungary it was a very different matter, the grassroots movement that developed prior to 1967 wanted an end to Communist rule, not to reform it. The catalyst for the uprising came when the police sought to break up a demonstration in Budapest on 8th of April 1967 and things rapidly escalated into a riot. The following day saw the unrest spread across the country and the Hungarian government ordered the army to suppress it, only for many units of the army to side with protestors, leaving the country on the brink of a full-fledged revolution.

Brezhnev was not about to allow this to happen, and the Red Army was ordered to disarm the mutineers among the Hungarian army and then to suppress the civilian protestors. What followed between April 11th and June 19th 1967 was a bloodbath. Hungarian army soldiers faced were executed in large numbers, some for nothing more than refusing to open fire on unarmed protestors. Civilian casualties were also high and with most records from the Hungarian government and the Soviet Union on the subject destroyed estimates of the death toll range from around two thousand dead to over twenty thousand. The ruthless repression in Hungary certainly succeeded in quelling any other reformists in the Communist bloc, inevitably it alienated many neutral nations and increased the hostility of the west towards the USSR as well as it neighbours in the east.

The Soviets had continued to support the People’s Republic of China, or Manchuria as the rest of the world still referred to it, regardless of the cult of personality that had grown up around Mao Zedong’s successors. These successors emphasized that the PRC should be self-sufficient and protect itself against the endless threat from the supposedly crumbling regimes in Beijing and Seoul. What this meant in practice was a fearsome series of border defences that largely succeeded in preventing their own population from fleeing in the face of the poverty and hunger that followed from the self-sufficiency policies. This meant that relations between the USSR, China and Korea remained frosty, which was an increasing issue for the Soviets in the face of the growing economic and military power of these nations.

By the mid-1970s the idea that the USSR was being penned in wasn’t simply a matter of paranoia in Moscow. The Soviets were running out of friends in the world and many analysts looking at economic trends opined that the USSR’s place as one of the two global superpowers would soon be usurped by the ROC and that in the long run the EFTZ and India would also overtake them. The economic woes of the Bratislava Pact meant that a decade after the ruthless suppression of the Hungarians there was a groundswell of discontent that threatened to boil over even in the face of dire warnings about the consequences coming out of the Politburo. An ageing Brezhnev could feel his power slipping away even as the USSR faced a seemingly irreversible decline. It was all but inevitable that when Iranian students occupied the Soviet embassy in Tehran the Soviets would resort to a military solution.
 
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Garrison

Donor
Soviet still be swallowing dust in another land...
Me thinks after this latest update this timeline version of Argo is gonna be DARK.
There is a fully fledged update that on that coming in due course, but I am trying to put up the postscripts that aren't national overviews in some sort of chronological order, which puts Cuba and South America ahead of it.
Did the Soviets transfer Crimea to the Ukraine Socialist Republic in this timeline, and is something ironic being lined up for Vera Putina like first female president of Ukraine?
Some things are just off the menu...
 

Garrison

Donor
Thank heave for small mercies. Your postscripts are very thorough and enjoyable. It’s almost like you have mapped out a future timeline. The question now is when are you going to write it lol.
well at the moment I am turning the first part of Munich Shuffle into a more publishing friendly format and I'm trying to break out the plot of a sci-fi novel. I do have some ideas about future TLs but they are all a bit vague at the moment.
 
well at the moment I am turning the first part of Munich Shuffle into a more publishing friendly format and I'm trying to break out the plot of a sci-fi novel. I do have some ideas about future TLs but they are all a bit vague at the moment.

Oh not to worry about that, look what we're doing to... er that is FOR... for Fester over in KC2.
I'm sure we can come up with plenty of plots to use on, er that is FOR... for you :)

Randy
 
Postscript Cuba - America’s Backyard April 1961 – November 1973

Garrison

Donor

Postscript Cuba - America’s Backyard April 1961 – November 1973​

Unrest in Cuba had risen steadily during the latter half of the 1950s, with groups opposing the Batista government becoming increasingly well-armed, if not well organized and starting to espouse a distinctly socialist rhetoric that alarmed the Americans. This was hardly surprising as the main source of weapons was the Communist bloc and the rebels had to at least say the right things to keep the support coming, whatever their true ideological beliefs might have been. The Cuban government enjoyed a rare success in September 1958 when they were able to target a meeting by rebel leaders and kill most of those attending. This had a huge impact on the revolutionaries less because of the deaths and more because of the way it exacerbated their divisions as there was a strong suspicion someone inside the movement had tipped off the authorities. This mass assassination of rebel leaders proved to be a temporary respite and by 1960 the pressure on the Batista regime was building once more, to the point where Batista himself was forced to ‘retire’ in April of that year and replaced with a Junta that proved no more effective at stopping the rise in support for the revolutionaries. This was because what was needed to undermine the rebels was genuine social and economic reforms, not a fresh round of repression. Such policies would have come at the expense of US business interests on the island, including the lucrative resorts and casinos where the mafia was heavily invested. No one in US politics was willing to interfere in those interests, so long as the Cuban rebels could be contained.

Cuba was not an issue that interested American voters when they went to the polls in 1960, but behind the scenes both the incumbent Stassen administration and the Democratic nominee Lyndon Johnson were concerned about the prospect of chaos on the island spilling over into the USA and Johnson in particular was worried that it might be turned into a Soviet puppet. Stassen was willing to restrict US support to more military advisors and covert action by the CIA, Johnson let it be known that he was in favour of a more proactive approach to the situation and the Joint Chiefs of Staff ordered a series of options to be prepared under the umbrella of Plan Gato. Once Johnson was inaugurated in January 1961, he was presented with Plan Gato, the contents of which covered everything from an expanded version of existing support for the Cuban government to a full scale ‘intervention’ by several divisions of US troops. Even as the options were being discussed events in Cuba propelled Johnson towards invasion. On the 23rd of February 1961 a group of off duty US soldiers from the base at Guantanamo Bay visited a bar in an area was supposed to off limits to American personnel. Around midnight a bomb went off killing eleven soldiers and more than twenty other bar patrons. This attack caught the attention of the US media, and the Cuban situation was suddenly making national headlines. In the aftermath Johnson approved the plan for an invasion that would involve soldiers from three divisions.

On the 17th of April 1961 the 2nd Marine Division was deployed from Guantanamo Bay to move inland and secure a number of key positions while advance elements of the 101st Airborne began landing at Rancho Boyeros Airport, securing the facilities there and moving on to Havana. Within hours the Cuban government was issuing statements welcoming the US intervention. These rang hollow in Cuba as the Junta had only been informed of the plan a few hours before the operation was launched and everyone in Cuba regardless of their political alignment saw it for what it was, their country had been occupied by the USA. The only real set back suffered by the USA during the invasion occurred during a supporting landing at the Bay of Pigs by the 3rd Marine Division. Poor intelligence gathering meant that the Americans were unaware that there was a strong rebel presence in the area and in the afternoon of the 17th the rebels put in an attack that caught the unprepared American troops completely by surprise. The fighting went on for three days, largely reflecting the inexperience of the US soldiers, unsurprising since the USA had not fought in any major conflict since the Manchurian War and even then, that had largely involved the USAAF. The landing of reinforcements, including armoured units, and the US advances elsewhere forced the rebels to scatter. They took heavy casualties in the fighting, but they would have little difficulty in recruiting replacements, replenishing their stockpiles of arms and ammunition was a more complex matter as the one area in which the US forces did do appreciably better than the Junta was in cutting the smuggling of weapons in to Cuba, though as time went on the rebels found way to circumvent this, largely by suborning members of the Cuban military who resented the Americans attitude towards them and their overbearing presence on the island.

For a few months after the invasion stories about Cuba kept appearing in the US media, though these were the product of carefully stage-managed visits by journalists producing propaganda pieces that the Soviets would have been proud off. Many young journalists were disgusted by the supine behaviour of their more established comrades, and this created a generation of reporters who were determined to make a name for themselves with hard-hitting investigative reporting, though for the rest of the 1960s the media remained remarkably friendly towards US policy in Cuba and indeed the entirety of American foreign policy. Cuba faded from the public’s attention by the autumn of 1961 and over the next couple of years it only occasionally generated a few column inches in the national press in the aftermath of some major action by the Cuban rebels, though this was invariably described as terrorism and the emphasis was very much on swift and decisive retaliation by US forces.

The one Cuba related event that grabbed the headlines in October 1963 didn’t take place on the island at all. The murder of General Edwin Walker at his home grabbed attention because of his support of segregationist policies in the south and his involvement in Democratic politics, he had also wholeheartedly endorsed the invasion of Cuba. The discovery of a ‘Hands off Cuba’ pamphlet at the scene swiftly put the police on the track of the assassin who died in a shootout with police on the 19th of October. The man’s name was Lee Harvey Oswald and part of the reason the story generated so much press was that Oswald was a former marine who had defected to the USSR in 1959 only to think better of it and he was repatriated to the USA in the spring of 1962, bringing with him his Russia wife Marina and their infant son. The Soviet connection sparked endless speculation, but the Soviets went to great pains to point out that the reason they had been willing to repatriate Oswald was that he was mentally unstable, a claim borne out by many of his acquaintances in the USA.

This brief excitement aside Cuba was a non-issue for most Americans. The Cuban people did not have the luxury of simply ignoring the occupation. Despite resentment in some quarters many Cubans were willing to tolerate the situation as in the first couple of years there was an improvement in the security situation and the US forces did put more money into the Cuban economy, though regrettably a large part of this flowed into the hands of the Mafia and back to the USA, where it helped finance other operations, particularly their expansion into the drug trade. By 1965 this tolerance had begun to wear thin as the economy took a downturn and the US increasingly inserted itself into everyday Cuban life in the name of cutting off support to the rebels. This resentment explains why there were some reports of public demonstrations in Cuba in the aftermath of President Johnson’s assassination that looked to American eyes like Cuban’s celebrating his death.

Joseph Kennedy Jnr had hardly been a close friend of Johnson, but he was offended by reports of these demonstrations, which modern research has cast considerable doubt on, and in one of his first acts as President he approved a series of measures to finally suppress the rebels. The most visible of these measures was the decision to recruit local militias to help patrol the Cuban countryside and root out the rebels from their hiding places. This militia would be separate from the Cuban military, who were regarded as ineffectual and heavily infiltrated by rebel sympathisers. The militia could also be kept at arm’s length from the US military, which rather begged the question of who exactly was in charge of them and responsible for ensuring they stayed on the right side of the law? The answer was that there was no one doing so, and the militias soon began to use tactics that clearly violated the Geneva Convention and other international agreements. Torture was blandly referred to as ‘high pressure interrogation’ and anyone killed by the militia must have been a terrorist, regardless of age, gender or background. Most of the victims of the militia would be ordinary Cuban labourers and farm workers, but doctors, lawyers and priests would also fall prey to them and by the time anyone did begin to question their activities it was clear that they had broken free of whatever control the US occupation forces might have exerted on them. Some came to be funded and supplied by the organized crime families involved with the resort businesses on the island and this blurred the line between revolutionaries and those Cubans doing nothing more than fighting for better pay and working conditions.

The response to this increased repression took the Americans by surprise as Cuban expatriates in the USA began a campaign of bombings just before Christmas 1968 targeting New York and North Carolina as well as several attacks in California in the spring of 1969. The latter two states were home to US Marine Divisions that had served in Cuba and New York was not only the financial hub of the US but also home to many of the companies heavily involved in Cuban holiday resorts. The first bomb attacks were poorly executed; however they became increasingly deadly and 18 people were killed and several dozen more were seriously injured over the next two years. The attacks only stopped out in the summer of 1970 after a nationwide investigation by the FBI finally identified the main players in the organization and they were either arrested or forced to flee to countries without any extradition arrangements with the USA.

The bombing campaign and the efforts of some crusading journalists to highlight some of the questionable policies being pursued by the US in Cuba finally prompted Congress to empanel a Cuba commission to look into the ongoing American presence in September of 1970. This however became almost entirely focused on the costs of the occupation and the loss life among US servicemen, ignoring any questions about the unsanctioned operations being carried out in the name of securing the island. With the commission wrapping up its work in June 1971, and drawing no meaningful conclusions, those in the military and intelligence communities who were deeply involved in potentially illegal activities could breathe a sigh of relief. They were unaware that one person inside their own community was sufficiently disgusted that they began working to reveal every dirty little secret of the decade long occupation.

The real identity of the person who methodically copied and smuggled out thousands of pages of documents relating to the USA operations in Cuba has remained a subject of speculation ever since, but those who could answer the question remained sworn to secrecy until the perpetrator was safely dead and beyond the reach of any retaliation by the US authorities. Documents were sent out to several news sources beginning in March of 1972, but it was the Washington Post that took point on publishing the damning contents and fighting the legal battles launched by the government to prevent them from doing so. The issue went all the way to the Supreme Court and the Washington Post won the day on First Amendment grounds. US politics would be engulfed by the revelations throughout the remainder of 1972. Some Republicans wanted to impeach President Kennedy, but he was spared owing to his heart attack and the fact that he had no intention of running again. There was the added complication that the Washington Post revelations made it clear that senior politicians on both sides of the House had been at least partly aware of what was going on in Cuba and had steered the 1970 commission away from anything that might have embarrassed the USA.

A fresh commission was established, and finger were pointed in all directions. Out of all this acrimony Walter Mondale emerged as the Democratic Party nominee for President, one of the few in Washington who could honestly claim to have opposed the ongoing occupation long before the Cuba papers were published. That he won the 1972 election was intensely frustrating for the Republicans and encouraged a new and much radical generation to try and seize the reins of the party. Mondale had promised to review the American presence in Cuba, but by the time of his inauguration he had been forced to shift towards supporting a full-scale withdrawal. There would be much heated debate about how this should be conducted and in the end all the carefully prepared plans collapsed into chaos as panic set in and the rebels stepped up their activities. US television news in the autumn of 1973 was filled with images of US citizens being airlifted out and angrily denouncing the government who had assured that it was still safe to visit Cuba. The military fought a series of running battles as they too were airlifted out, or withdrew back to the perimeter around Guantanamo Bay, which the USA had no intention of abandoning. The US withdrawal ended in November 1973 with the undignified sight of people piling into helicopters as the US embassy in Havana had to be abandoned in the face of mass protests and the threat that the mob might overrun the embassy.

For the Americans who fled Cuba the turmoil was at short-lived, for the people of Cuba it saw the collapse of the island’s economy and infrastructure and the eruption of fighting between rebels, militia, and what remained of the Cuban military still loyal to the Junta, with the latter continuing to receive weapons and equipment from the US while the rebels and the militia turned to other sources. Both of them became heavily involved in Cocaine trafficking towards the end of the decade, which only fuelled the ongoing violence. Huge numbers of Cubans sought to flee to country, which meant crossing the ninety miles to the coast of Florida, where they received a frosty reception, made worse by the fact that there many convicted criminals infiltrated the ranks of the refugees. Some had escaped in the chaos of the post withdrawal period, but others had been deliberately set free, with militia and the rebels effectively opening prison gates and telling the inmates to get out of the country or else. This not only removed a large number of undesirables, but it also served as form of revenge against the USA. Nearly two decades would pass before anything resembling stability would return to Cuba and much the same could be said for the state of Florida.
 

Garrison

Donor
I see the USA has developed its own Spanish Ulcer.
The key differences from Vietnam are that this is on the doorstep of the USA rather than half a world away, there's no neighboring hostile power to ship in arms on a large scale and there's no draft to stir up opposition to the occupation in the US.
 
Postscript China – Restoration of the Middle Kingdom 1956-1980

Garrison

Donor

Postscript China – Restoration of the Middle Kingdom 1956-1980​

Victory in the Manchurian Conflict marked a pivotal moment in the history of the Republic of China. The Americans chose to credit the victory to the atomic bomb, but Chiang Kai Shek made it clear to the people of the ROC that it was their armed forces that had crushed the Communists and that Manchuria only continued to exist as an independent nation on the sufferance of the regime in Beijing, which the ROC insisted their capital be called after 1959 rather than the anglicized Peking. The defeat of the last external threat to the ROC brought in a period of political stability in China, which was not entirely a good thing as Chiang Kai Shek was obsessed with retaining all power in his own hands. Given the scale and diversity of China such centralization impeded not only political development but also hindered economic growth, which was not helped by the fact that the regime in Beijing seemed unable or unwilling to reign in the corruption that acted as a drain on the state. This began to change when Lyndon Johnson became US President. He was firmly of the view that the USA could not simply keep bankrolling the defence of its allies forever, ‘self-reliance’ became the new watch for dealing with NATO countries and with the ROC. Under considerable pressure from the USA to bolster its economy so it could pay for the weapons being supplied to the Chinese Army, as well as developing the country as a market for US consumer goods and capital investment, Chiang Kai Shek launched a fresh anti-corruption drive and to the horror of many officials in China this time the paramount leader was deadly serious about it. What took place between 1962 and 1966 was a purge every bit as fierce as those previously conducted against suspected Communist sympathisers. Corruption was now categorized as sabotage and even as a treasonous act. Being placed on one of the infamous ‘Red Lists’ would mean at the very least an official would be stripped of their position and sent off to work as a labourer. If it was deemed that an example was required then the death penalty was applied, even where the evidence was flimsy at best.

That this ruthless culling of so many in the Chinese hierarchy went all but unnoticed in the international media partly reflected the firm control the ROC maintained over the flow of information but also the fact that much of the western media was uninterested in Asia and when they did pay an interest it was usually to report on some particularly tragic turn of events in Indochina or the increasingly strident nationalist sentiment coming out of Japan. As brutal as it was the anti-corruption drive did produce results, removing some genuine offenders, scaring others into being more circumspect and removing a lot of the Kuomintang old guard who had occupied positions based on their loyalty during the war against the Japanese rather than any administrative abilities. This had the unintended consequence of starting the process of loosening the grip of the Kuomintang over the ROC and encouraging the beginnings of new political movements. The purge also forced Beijing to allow for greater regional autonomy as so many officials in the central government had been removed. In the long run this push for reform backfired on the USA as it led to the emergence of the ROC as both an economic and military power on the global stage.

Chiang Kai Shek’s role in this progress, especially during his last decade in power, is often portrayed in purely negative terms and yet without the foundations laid during the 1960s by his regime the rapid expansion of the 1970s would have been impossible, especially in the military sphere. Even as he was willing to tolerate considerable corruption in the economic sphere, he was determined to turn the ROC’s armed forces into a match for any in the world. This was driven by the sense that despite their victory in the Manchurian campaign the Chinese army looked second best to both the American and Communist Chinese forces during most of the battles. Chiang Kai Shek was determined that if the Communist dared set foot outside of Manchuria again then the ROC would be able to crush them and take Manchuria, whatever the objections of the Americans or the Soviets. Manchuria was not the only potential flashpoint for the ROC, relations with India were also strained, owing to a series of ongoing borders disputes and their mutual competition to become the dominant power in Asia. On the other hands relations with the Koreans warmed considerably across the 1960s, inspired by their mutual concerns about Manchuria and Japan. Korea would also offer an alternate source of industrial investment in the ROC that didn’t come with the political strings that were attached to so much American capital.

Chiang Kai Shek’s death in 1972 took the Chinese people by complete surprise and there was much genuine mourning of his passing as well as the carefully stage-managed outpourings of grief broadcast by the Chinese media. The cause of death for China’s leader was listed as the frustratingly vague ‘heart failure’. No autopsy was performed as no one was willing to take the responsibility for desecrating the body of the great man and his family was also adamantly against it. This naturally led to a great deal of speculation that there was something sinister about Chiang Kai Skek’s death, to the point that in 1985, to reflect the openness and commitment to freedom of the press of the newly elected ROC government, it was revealed that blood samples had been drawn from the body and preserved. Toxicological testing was clear and genetic testing a few years later did show that Chiang Kai Shek had markers that predisposed him to several conditions that he may have avoided being tested for during his lifetime. In the absence of any hard data to the contrary it can only be assumed that Chiang Kai Shek died of natural causes.

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy in the 1970s is often attributed to the more favourable environment after Chiang Kai death but the reality was it had more to do with the changes in environmental and industrial regulations in the USA during that decade which encouraged the outsourcing of US manufacturing to countries without such stringent regulations and China would be the largest single beneficiary of this, in due course emerging as a significant competitor for US corporations not only in Asia but also successfully penetrating North American markets. This growth promoted a large-scale movement of the Chinese population from the countryside to the cities and this along with increasing prosperity led to a massive increase in air pollution in those urban centres. It was this that spurred the ROC to take a keen interest in clean energy technologies as the 1980s progressed, a move also driven by the dramatic spikes in the price of oil owing to the instability that plagued the Middle East. Overall, the ROC rode out these shocks better than some of its global competitors.
 
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Postscript The Beagle War - April – June 1978

Garrison

Donor

Postscript The Beagle War - April – June 1978​

In the spring of 1978, the South Atlantic was not high on anyone’s list of potential global flashpoints. There had been a longstanding dispute between Chile and Argentina over the Beagle Channel and the chain of islands there. If anywhere in the region was deemed likely to provoke a military conflict it was the Falkland Islands, which the Argentinians also laid claim to, though the fact these were British dependencies should have ruled out any move by the Argentinians to try and invade them. Despite the high risk the Argentinians seriously considered an amphibious assault to seize the Islands and South Georgia in late 1977. They believed that with PM Dennis Healy and the Labour government focused on domestic issues on domestic issues and looking to reduce the defence budget there might be an opening for a swift decisive invasion of the Falklands This idea was also partly motivated by the fact that a British led international tribunal had awarded control of Picton, Lennox and Nueva to Chile in June of 1977. Wanting to punish the British for this action and deliver a military success that would bolster their failing public support the Junta controlling Argentina at the time had convinced themselves that faced with a fait accompli the British would protest but do nothing else. This theory was soundly rebuffed when intelligence pointing to Argentinian intentions was received in London and the Destroyers HMS Sheffield and HMS Hood were dispatched on a visit to the Falklands in November of 1977, along with the nuclear submarine HMS Temeraire. The presence of two British warships anchored off Port Stanley caused the Argentine Junta to reconsider their options and yet instead of abandoning the idea of using military action to distract from Argentina’s economic woes the Junta turned their attention back to the Beagle Channel.

If targeting the Beagle Channel avoided starting a conflict with a major western power invading the islands risked spilling over into a full-scale war with Chile instead, and whereas Britain was thousands of miles away Chile and Argentina shared a long common border. Still the Argentinians carried on planning an invasion to seize control of the islands supported by a full-scale invasion of Chile if necessary. It was a case of military minds seeking a military solution to social and political problems. The Argentines were willing to take this risk because they erroneously believed they would have the support of the USA, since the Americans had been willing to supply arms to the Junta precisely because of their enmity towards Chile. The US government had not been happy when Salvador Allende became president of Chile and the CIA worked with elements in the Chilean military to orchestrate a coup. This went spectacularly wrong in late 1972 when the Washington Post published details of the ‘Cuba Papers’, which not only revealed information about the conduct of the military and the CIA during the occupation of Cuba but also revealed information about some of the CIA’s other ‘black ops’ including their connections with the Chilean military. This resulted in a number of army officers, condemned as American puppets, being arrested or fleeing the country, including chief conspirator General Augusto Pinochet. He found refuge in Argentina, which only served to increase the strain on relations between the two countries. Much to the surprise of the US Allende followed the Chilean constitution which forbade anyone from being President for two consecutive terms and he was replace by his predecessor Eduardo Frei Montalva, which was not much of an improvement in American eyes. Some had hoped that after Nelson Rockefeller won the US Presidential election in 1976 there might be a thawing of relations, especially considering the constant accusations about the brutal treatment of opponents of the Junta in Argentina. Unfortunately, these hopes were dashed as the Rockefeller administration renewed US support to Argentina, and the US was distinctly non-committal about ratifying the disposition of the Beagle Channel arrived at by the arbitration commission.

It was this that led the Argentine to believe that they could count on the US to prevent any meaningful international response and the invasion of the islands began just after dawn on the 22nd of April. The Chileans had very little in the way of a presence on any of the trio and in the face of near simultaneous landings on all three there was little they could do to resist. The only significant casualties for the Argentines came when two amphibious assault vehicles collided just off Picton island and sank, claiming some twenty live in the process. Publicly the Argentines justified their action by claiming that control of the islands was vital to Argentina’s national interest and that the arbitration had been biased and possibly even corrupt, a claim that aroused the ire of the British.

Initially the US reaction to the capture of the islands was all that the Argentines could have hoped for. When he addressed the issue on the 24th of April President Rockefeller called for a halt to any further military action and for both sides to agree to sit down and negotiate. This superficially reasonable position served to infuriate many of the professional diplomats in Washington as it could be read as acceding to the Argentinian seizure despite the action being in violation of international agreements the USA was technically a party to. Rockefeller claimed that the fact things didn’t escalate into a full-blown Argentine invasion of Chile, or vice versa, was owing to his call for restraint. In fact the Argentines had concluded that despite possessing a much a larger military than the Chileans the terrain along the border and the natural advantages that accrued to the defender would make such an attack far too costly, though it seems this was not finally decided until the 23rd of April, too late to reconsider the Beagle Channel operation. Being heavily outnumbered served to dissuade the Chileans from any operations in the opposite direction, for the time being at least, and instead they began to work on plans to remove the Argentines from the islands and trying to build up international support, whether diplomatic or practical.

If the reaction from Washington towards the invasion was rather lukewarm the political temperature in London swiftly approached boiling point. The accusations of bias and corruption in the arbitration was a direct slap in the face to the British. Equally importantly this reckless action by the Argentinians raised serious concerns about what they might do next, meaning that the security of the Falkland Islands was once again in question. By pure coincidence other events had served to bring the Falkland Islands to the attention of the British public, specifically a BBC documentary that had explored the islands and their wildlife, meaning that when details of the previous Argentinian threat to the island leaked the press made them front page news. Several British newspapers who were inclined towards supporting the Conservative Party accused the government of jeopardizing British interests by their inaction, conveniently ignoring deployment of the Royal navy ships to the Falklands the previous winter. The two destroyers and HMS Temeraire had returned to Britain in January and rather than simply sending another small force of warships Prime Minister Healy decided that a clear and unequivocal message had to be sent to Argentina and so despite objections from some in the Royal Navy, and in his own cabinet, he decided a fully-fledged taskforce would be dispatched with the aircraft carrier HMS Vanguard at the heart of a force of fourteen warships which would escort a group of transport ships carrying a force of 385 Royal Marines to reinforce the defences on the islands. Healy announced his decision on the 27th of April and stated the task force would depart within the next fortnight. This both allowed the British government to be seen to be taking strong action and left a window of opportunity for pressure to be applied to the Argentinians to withdraw from the Beagle Channel and avoid the risk of clashing with the Royal Navy.

There was consternation in both Buenos Aires and Washington at the British decision, though regrettably not much in the way of a coherent response. In Washington there had already been some heated discussions behind closed doors at the White House about the President’s ‘hasty’ pronouncement, with Vice-President Ronald Reagan being particularly unhappy. He was of the opinion that the US should have followed the British lead and dispatched a US Navy Taskforce to the area, with US Marines taking control of the Beagle Islands ‘temporarily’ while conducting long term negotiations with Chile and Argentina over their final disposition. This idea horrified the State Department, still dealing with the mess created by the US withdrawal from Cuba, and annoyed President Rockefeller, who was in no mood to be portrayed as having been misunderstood or as having flip-flopped on his position. These disagreements served to prevent any positive action from Washington as April turned to May and the US Ambassador to the UN was left in the embarrassing position of having to abstain while a resolution condemning the Argentine occupation of the Beagle islands was passed in the General Assembly.

In Buenos Aires there was considerable apprehension among the leaders of the Junta at the British move, and this was nothing compared to the mounting tension among the general population, where the seizure of the Beagle islands had done nothing to bolster the standing of the Junta. Common sense might have dictated they take advantage of the opportunity seemingly afforded by President Rockefeller’s statement and seek an agreement to withdraw from the islands on condition the issue of control would be renegotiated. Given the divisions in Washington attempts by the Junta to reach out produced no result as the professional diplomats were desperately trying to distance the USA from this idea. Faced with this the Argentinians sought to calm the situation with the British by sending assurances that they had not been accusing them of any wrongdoing with regard to the arbitration and that they had never intended to invade the Falkland Islands. Given that the British had intelligence that gave the lie to this latter claim this diplomatic effort also failed dismally and with great fanfare the Royal Navy taskforce duly set sail on the 9th of May.

The time it took for the taskforce to reach the South Atlantic created a further opportunity for diplomacy and there would be several attempts to create some sort of workable compromise, with Peru taking a leading role acting on behalf of the UN. These efforts foundered because the Chileans were utterly unwilling to entertain any plan that might reopen the question of control of the Beagle Islands and the dispatch of the British taskforce simply stiffened their resolve. The Chileans were making discrete diplomatic overtures to London, looking for more active support from the Healy government. Even if a direct intervention was out of the question the Chileans hoped that might be able to obtain weapons and equipment that would strengthen their defence and encourage the Argentinians to back down. No one in London was prepared to go that far, yet, but neither did they encourage the Chileans to back down in the face of Argentine aggression. Adding the continued arguments in Washington over what steps they should take and in support of whom it was not surprising that the crisis was still threatening to flash over into a full-scale war between Chile and Argentina when the taskforce arrived on the 24th of May.

In Buenos Aires the Junta was now desperately looking for a way out of the crisis but were not at this point prepared to withdraw from the Beagle Islands without at least the guarantee that the result of the arbitration would be revised, something that definitely was not on offer. Any hopes that the seizure of the islands would bolster the Junta had been dashed by the hostile response from London and the clear signs of back peddling from President Rockefeller’s original position in Washington. The mood in Argentina overall was one of sullen unhappiness with an undercurrent of fear, only made worse by a series of false alarms about air attacks heading for Buenos Aires. The one action the Junta did take as the taskforce arrived was to recall the aircraft carrier ARA Veinticinco de Mayo for fear that there might be an accidental encounter between aircraft from Veinticinco de Mayo and patrolling fighters from HMS Vanguard. There was something of an irony in this owing to the fact that the Veinticinco de Mayo had begun life as the Royal Navy carrier HMS Vengeance. News of the withdrawal soon reached the Chileans, and this encouraged them to concentrate elements of their own navy around the Beagle Islands. These ships included the Almirante Lynch, a derivative of the Leander Class of Royal Navy frigates. She had been built in the UK and would engage in the most significant military action of the conflict.

On the 27th of May the ARA General Belgrano was escorting a transport carrying supplies and equipment for the troops garrisoned on Picton Island. This was meant to be a fast run, but the transport proved incapable of maintaining its rated speed and thus the journey would take a full eight hours longer than planned, which prove to be enough time for the Almirante Lynch to intercept the pair, though precisely how the Chilean acquired the information on the course and speed of the Argentine ships has been hotly disputed. Many believe that the British passed this intelligence to the Chileans, though records pertaining to operations in the South Atlantic are not due to be declassified until 2028 and successive governments have refused to be drawn on the issue. Conversely the General Belgrano was unaware that there was a Chilean ship in the vicinity and does not appear to have detected Almirante Lynch or if the Belgrano did, she does not appear to have registered the Almirante Lynch. Given that it was impossible to get any first-hand accounts from the senior officers of the General Belgrano in the aftermath of the encounter a definitive answer is impossible to come by. The Almirante Lynch had received updated rules of engagement that called for her to engage any hostile warships approaching the Beagle Islands without warning and she was equipped with a battery of British made Stingray anti-shipping missiles. At about 1810 hours she targeted the General Belgrano and fired two missiles. One failed to lock on but the second hit home, penetrating the hull just behind B turret. Fire and smoke billowed out of the hole torn in the hull as the explosion started a fire aboard the Belgrano. Frantic efforts were made to contain the fire but barely ten minutes after the missile hit a massive explosion in the ammunition magazine for B turret wracked the ship and broke her back. The Admiral Belgrano she slid beneath the water at 1845 hours, taking 904 of her crew with her, including her captain.

The merchant ship the General Belgrano had been escorting immediately turned around and headed back to port, leaving the Almirante Lynch to pick up the survivors of the attack. These survivors were shocked to be brought aboard a Chilean warship, apparently believing that the General Belgrano had been torpedoed by a Royal Navy submarine. This was also the belief in Buenos Aires, even after the Almirante Lynch radioed her base and reported their successful attack and the rescue of the survivors. It was only when the Almirante Lynch returned to harbour and offloaded the survivors that the Chilean version of events was finally accepted by the Argentinians, or at least by most of the populace, the Junta still clung to the claim that it was the Royal Navy that had sunk the Belgrano, which while provocative on one front provided an excuse not to escalate the situation with the Chileans, especially given they had rescued the survivors.

This sudden absence of belligerence was a result of the rapid shift in both the international and domestic attitude to the invasion of the Beagle Islands. On the 29th of May President Rockefeller called for Argentine withdrawal from the Beagle islands, ‘without precondition’. There were also large-scale demonstrations in Buenos Aires, and they were not in support of the Junta. Most Argentinians had concluded that they country was facing to prospect of a war that might draw in the British and Americans for a handful of islands that seemed to have little of value to offer. Crucially this attitude had crept into the ranks of the military as well, meaning that the Junta was on very shaky ground even among its natural supporters. The choices facing the Junta were stark, escalation or withdrawal. With no appetite for the former they would have to embrace the latter and try to avoid total humiliation in the process. The Argentinian announcement on the 2nd of June that they would withdraw was a huge relief to the international community, especially the Chileans and the British. The British were happy that the bulk of the difficult to sustain taskforce could be brought home, though several ships would remain in the area until August and the Chileans were willing to restrain their celebration of victory as they were acutely aware they had avoided a major war by the narrowest of margins.

The withdrawal did nothing to reduce the unrest in Argentina and the Junta would be ousted from power in September 1978. President Rockefeller would last rather longer but the mishandling of the crisis permanently damaged the relationship between Rockefeller and Reagan and established a narrative in the media of a gaffe prone administration that Rockefeller could never shake off, contributing to his defeat in 1980. For Denis Healy however the adventure in the South Atlantic proved to be a boost, with even the usual critics forced to concede that they had acted decisively and protected British interests. How much this influenced the Labour victory in the General Election of August 1978 is debatable, but it may have contributed a couple of seats to the majority of 37 that Labour achieved, allowing them to continue in office until 1983.
 
Spent some time the other night catching up with this timeline, very nice to see the continuing development of the post-war world. Looking forwards to more!
 
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