Is there any way the Harpers Ferry Arsenal could have been located somewhere else?
George Washington had visited Harpers Ferry before he was president, and was impressed by its location at the confluence of the Potomac and Shenandoah Rivers and the natural beauty of the town. This resulted in his selection of Harpers Ferry as the national arsenal in 1794. Perhaps Washington never visits Harpers Ferry? Not sure where the arsenal would be relocated.
Frex, would Fort Monroe have the space to accommodate it? Iirc that post remained in Union hands throughout the ACW. It would also be harder for John Brown and co to get at.
Fort Monroe was built in the aftermath of the War of 1812, when the Americans realized the need to defend their harbours and cities from naval attack. The arsenal and armory at Harpers Ferry was established in 1796, hence it would not have made much sense to move the armory to a coastal fort.
Assuming that political considerations require it to be in Virginia, might somewhere near Wheeling have been acceptable.?
I'm afraid that I don't know much about this.
Either way, any thoughts on how events in 1861 might be affected if the secessionists don't capture it?
As in the conflagration of Harpers Ferry destroys all the rifles? Historically about over 4,000 rifles were still in usable condition and much machinery able to be salvaged; the surviving elements of the armory were shipped south to Richmond and Fayetteville, North Carolina.
Meanwhile the news of the saved rifles caused militia companies fron throughout the Shenandoah Valley and the hills of Western Virginia to flock to the town. This allowed Lee to assign Jackson command of the militia forces in Harpers Ferry and, in turn, Jackson would use the opportunity to drill and discipline the militiamen.
If no rifles were seized, it is likely that the Virginian militia companies would arrive at a later date or at a slower rate. With no arms from Harpers Ferry available, the militiamen would have less opportunities to drill; this may result in a less disciplined Stonewall Brigade at Bull Run. The loss of 4,000 rifles may result in 4,000 less Confederates being present in the Confederate army, which may tip the scales slightly in favor of the Union at the Battle of Bull Run.
