Suleiman is killed at Mohács?

[Vinization]

The Battle of Mohács was, as we all know, a curbstomp so ridiculously one sided that some Ottoman commanders reportedly refused to believe that they just defeated the main Hungarian army. However, there was a moment the battle during which Suleiman the Not Yet Magnificent took a few gunshots that were deflected by his cuirass. What if he gets hit by a stray bullet somewhere unprotected and dies, either in the fighting or shortly afterwards, leaving the throne at the hands of his 11 year old son Mustafa?

For the sake of convenience let's say that Louis II dies too, just like IOTL. What does the Ottoman army do? My guess is that they return to Constantinople to make sure the transfer of power goes smoothly. What happens in Hungary, can the Habsburgs assert their claim over the kingdom and consolidate their control before the Turks come back? They did capture Buda from John Zápolya shortly before Suleiman besieged Vienna IOTL.

 

[Osman Aga]

The Battle of Mohács was, as we all know, a curbstomp so ridiculously one sided that some Ottoman commanders reportedly refused to believe that they just defeated the main Hungarian army. However, there was a moment the battle during which Suleiman the Not Yet Magnificent took a few gunshots that were deflected by his cuirass. What if he gets hit by a stray bullet somewhere unprotected and dies, either in the fighting or shortly afterwards, leaving the throne at the hands of his 11 year old son Mustafa?

For the sake of convenience let's say that Louis II dies too, just like IOTL. What does the Ottoman army do? My guess is that they return to Constantinople to make sure the transfer of power goes smoothly. What happens in Hungary, can the Habsburgs assert their claim over the kingdom and consolidate their control before the Turks come back? They did capture Buda from John Zápolya shortly before Suleiman besieged Vienna IOTL.

Ibrahim Pasha is still Grand Vizier and remains one very likely as long as Mustafa becomes an experienced adult Sultan. The Ottomans had little trouble to drive Ferdinand away from Central Hungary which won't be a problem in the upcoming years. Zapolya likely remains in Transylvania, and it may look just like OTL, except with few settlements remaining in Habsburg hands like Esztergom and Gyor. The death of Suleiman does not affect the Ottoman military badly. In OTL, the Ottomans conquered/annexed Hungary almost 20 years after the victory at Mohacs. Considering that Ferdinand of Austria is highly unlikely to refrain from wars against the Ottoman Empire to support his brother, Hungary does become a target.

 

[Vinization]

Ibrahim Pasha is still Grand Vizier and remains one very likely as long as Mustafa becomes an experienced adult Sultan. The Ottomans had little trouble to drive Ferdinand away from Central Hungary which won't be a problem in the upcoming years. Zapolya likely remains in Transylvania, and it may look just like OTL, except with few settlements remaining in Habsburg hands like Esztergom and Gyor. The death of Suleiman does not affect the Ottoman military badly. In OTL, the Ottomans conquered/annexed Hungary almost 20 years after the victory at Mohacs. Considering that Ferdinand of Austria is highly unlikely to refrain from wars against the Ottoman Empire to support his brother, Hungary does become a target.

But couldn't the four/five or so years the Ottomans spend ensuring Mustafa's accession is secure help Ferdinand consolidate more of Hungary?

 

[Osman Aga]

But couldn't the four/five or so years the Ottomans spend ensuring Mustafa's accession is secure help Ferdinand consolidate more of Hungary?

It won't take four to five years to consolidate Mustafa's rule. Suleiman dying in Hungary means Hurrem has no clue that he is dead until the arrival of the Army. Ibrahim Pasha secures the princes from Hurrem, gets latter killed preferably and secures Mustafa's rule. Nobody is going to question Mustafa as a Sultan because he is 11, especially with the Grand Vizier being effective.

But yes, four/five year seem good enough for Ferdinand to consolidate Hungary, apart of Transylvania, where he needs to secure Zapolya's loyalty or eviction, which will take another few years.

I'd see the Ottomans returning to Hungary under Ibrahim Pasha's command by 1529. Again, the situation might be different but the Ottoman Military is not going to be anything weaker, while Ferdinand's Forces are not going to be anything bigger or smaller than Louis II, with less Hungarian troops available (unless Zapolya declares loyalty for some reason), considering how recently Mohacs was.

Maybe instead of Buda, the Ottomans resort to the Banat, Slavonia, parts of Eastern Hungary and Transylvania as a vassal, only. Ferdinand keeps most of Hungary. That seems the best option. Considering that Ferdinand is going to help his brother in the campaigns against the Ottomans, he will make himself a target. As the Ottomans are not going to wait half a century to finally invade Hungary again, Ferdinand will be dealing with a big problem. I really don't see the Ottomans refraining to invade Hungary, especially with a threat like the Habsburgs on the doors of the Balkans. Especially when the Ottomans are militarily far more superior than their enemy.