Surviving Parma, Modena and Republic of Lucca - Failed Italian Unification

[zarathustra]

How would the historical trajectory of certain Italian states, specifically the Duchies of Parma-Piacenza, Modena-Reggio, and the Grand Duchy of Tuscany, have differed if the Italian Unification had failed?
These entities were reinstated post-Napoleon but were later dissolved during the unification process. In an alternate scenario where unification did not occur, could these states have survived as independent nations? Additionally, I'm curious about the potential fate of the Republic of Lucca in such a scenario. Could it have existed as a micro-state similar to San Marino?"

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

How would the historical trajectory of certain Italian states, specifically the Duchies of Parma-Piacenza, Modena-Reggio, and the Grand Duchy of Tuscany, have differed if the Italian Unification had failed?
These entities were reinstated post-Napoleon but were later dissolved during the unification process. In an alternate scenario where unification did not occur, could these states have survived as independent nations? Additionally, I'm curious about the potential fate of the Republic of Lucca in such a scenario. Could it have existed as a micro-state similar to San Marino?"

Lucca? No, since per the statutes of the Congress of Vienna, it was to pass to the grand duchy of Tuscany on the death of Empress Marie Louise. The rulers of Lucca- the ex-dukes of Parma- were then to reclaim Parma. And FWIG, the main reason that Parma "struggled" to assert itself under Roberto I was because his dad was assassinated. I don't know if Roberto's dad woudl've made any difference, since he didn't particularly want to be duke to start with IIRC, but an adult male instead of a child is always more useful for stability

@Nuraghe @isabella @LordKalvan

 

[catalfalque]

Obviously a lot depends on what happens instead. Do you see a Habsburg client state of Lombardy-Venetia independent but linked through the dynasty, as was Tuscany OTL? Or does Austria simply bash everybody, defeat Sardinia and the French? And then at some point there is a re-run? Does Garibaldi give up, or refocus on Sicily, the island?

 

[zarathustra]

Obviously a lot depends on what happens instead. Do you see a Habsburg client state of Lombardy-Venetia independent but linked through the dynasty, as was Tuscany OTL? Or does Austria simply bash everybody, defeat Sardinia and the French? And then at some point there is a re-run? Does Garibaldi give up, or refocus on Sicily, the island?

Yeah, like, I didn't think specifically about what "no Italian unification" should mean here
The main idea is how to make these duchies independent, but I'm sure different "no-italian-unifications" would severely affect this. For example both duchies just being absorbed by Piedmont or something similar

 

[Nuraghe]

Yeah, like, I didn't think specifically about what "no Italian unification" should mean here
The main idea is how to make these duchies independent, but I'm sure different "no-italian-unifications" would severely affect this. For example both duchies just being absorbed by Piedmont or something similar

in reality one could also imagine a different development for these three states compared to being annexed by Piedmont or Austria ( which the Modenese requested, twice that happened Otl in 1821 and 1831 ), the other scenario is that Parma, Modena and Lucca in an ATL Post 1848 are instead unified together to create a kingdom of Emilia which on paper is stable and strong enough to resist a further ( and future ) Savoyard military campaign, in reality such a scenario had been aired by the pope in 1714, when both Modena and Parma were in dynastic crisis, in the pontiff's plans there was the idea of installing James Francis Edward Stuart as the new duke ( since being the direct nephew of the last Duke of Modena, would be his direct heir ) and subsequently marrying him to Isabella Farnese ( especially if Philip V's first wife does not die so soon ), so as to unify the territory, and raising Emilia to the Duchy ( but only if the young Stuart had failed to regain the English throne and if he had obtained the consent of the great Catholic powers )

 

[zarathustra]

in reality such a scenario had been aired by the pope in 1714

Interesting. I never thought about , but it really sounds a better approach!
Reading a little about I found the "United Provinces of Central Italy", but this was established by the Piedmontese and latter absorbed by the former

 

[Nuraghe]

Interesting. I never thought about , but it really sounds a better approach!
Reading a little about I found the "United Provinces of Central Italy", but this was established by the Piedmontese and latter absorbed by the former

actually the provinces of central Italy almost resemble the Cispadane republic by French republican origin, furthermore, talking about a Stuart Emilia, the formation of this state ( again according to papal thought ) would have avoided a further increase in Habsburg / Bourbon influence in the peninsula, which could prove dangerous for Rome in the long run

but historically speaking the union of the cities of Romagna or Emilia into a single entity has been attempted several times throughout Otl history, by the Este family ( before falling into family wars ), by Caterina Sforza and then following Cesare Borgia ( who conquered a good portion of the region and wanted to make it a hereditary fiefdom for his family, so as to allow the Borgias to be partially freed from the changing fortunes of the papacy )


well another scenario instead is the one in which Metternich stops doing things on his own ( but it would require banging your head hard ), and really listens to what the inhabitants of Modena are asking of him, i.e. to be unified with the Lombardy-Veneto kingdom, this partly helps Austria, given that he should stop to pay subsidies to the Duke of Modena to have the Austrian units stay permanently in his territory ( since it would be annexed ) furthermore he could ensure that any nationalists or progressives ( more likely centrists / moderates ) see in the administration of the new and expanded kingdom of Lombardy-Veneto, a place where you can make a career instead of going like OTL in Piedmont - Sardinia ( which was a small advantage for the subsequent national unification )

 

[Nuraghe]

actually the provinces of central Italy almost resemble the Cispadane republic by French republican origin, furthermore, talking about a Stuart Emilia, the formation of this state ( again according to papal thought ) would have avoided a further increase in Habsburg / Bourbon influence in the peninsula, which could prove dangerous for Rome in the long run

but historically speaking the union of the cities of Romagna or Emilia into a single entity has been attempted several times throughout Otl history, by the Este family ( before falling into family wars ), by Caterina Sforza and then following Cesare Borgia ( who conquered a good portion of the region and wanted to make it a hereditary fiefdom for his family, so as to allow the Borgias to be partially freed from the changing fortunes of the papacy )


well another scenario instead is the one in which Metternich stops doing things on his own ( but it would require banging your head hard ), and really listens to what the inhabitants of Modena are asking of him, i.e. to be unified with the Lombardy-Veneto kingdom, this partly helps Austria, given that he should stop to pay subsidies to the Duke of Modena to have the Austrian units stay permanently in his territory ( since it would be annexed ) furthermore he could ensure that any nationalists or progressives ( more likely centrists / moderates ) see in the administration of the new and expanded kingdom of Lombardy-Veneto, a place where you can make a career instead of going like OTL in Piedmont - Sardinia ( which was a small advantage for the subsequent national unification )

another possibility that I had not previously taken into consideration for the development of the region is shortly after Clement XI project by an Emilia Stuart, that is when Parma was ceded to the Habsburgs in 1736 ( under the government of Emperor Charles VI ) a result of the peace preliminaries stipulated during the Vienna agreements with the future Charles III of Spain, the duchy remained in Habsburg hands until 1748, where with the Treaty of Aachen, it was ceded to Don Philip of Bourbon ( together with Piacenza and Guastalla ), but if Austria could emerge from the war of succession in a better condition ( or even better avoid it altogether ) these territories would be kept among the imperial possessions, I could see two developments for this: the first is that they are merged into Milan or given to a younger son of Maria Theresa