No Jobseekers allowance is still the primary form of welfare for unemployed people, alongside other benefits such as disability
"The Commonwealth of Britain" - Republican UK Wikibox TL
- Thread starter powerab
- Start date
No UC is another reason why this TL is superior to OTL.
Just a shame Britain has to be a filthy republic.
If any government could properly manage UC it would probably work but no one knows how to change an bureaucratic behemoth
2020, Part 8, A Pale Horse
Vaccine animal testing had finished, now it was time for human subjects
“The clinical studies are progressing very well. We are now initiating studies to test how well the vaccine induces immune responses. We are very grateful to the huge support of the trial volunteers in helping test whether this vaccine could protect against the pandemic. The COVID-19 vaccine trial team have been working hard on assessing the safety of the vaccine. We have had a lot of interest already from people eligible to take part in the phase I study, and we will now be able to continue the vaccine assessment. We will also be including more study sites, in different parts of the country. We are so proud to be collaborating with the University of Oxford to speed up the development of this vaccine. The speed at which this new vaccine has advanced is testament to Oxford’s ground-breaking scientific research. We will do everything in our power to engage with governments around the world to increase research speeds.” - Dominic Kelly, head of the Oxford Vaccine Group (2020)
British scientists like Kelly and Andrew Pollard helped lead the way in vaccine development
A light appeared at the end of the Covid tunnel as human trials of a COVID-19 vaccine began in Oxford. Three volunteers were injected, the first of more than 900 people recruited for the study. Half will receive the Covid-19 vaccine and half a control vaccine which protects against meningitis. The design of the trial meant volunteers would not know which vaccine they were getting, though doctors would. The vaccine was developed in under three months by a team at Oxford University. Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at the Jenner Institute, led the pre-clinical research. "I have a high degree of confidence in this vaccine," she said. "Of course, we have to test it and get data from humans. We have to prove it actually works and stops people getting infected with the coronavirus." The vaccine was made from a weakened version of a common cold virus (known as an adenovirus) from chimpanzees. The Oxford team had already developed a vaccine against Mers using the same approach - and that had promising results in clinical trials. Whilst the vaccine trials yielded promising results, the virus continued to burn through the country, especially hitting key workers.
Trade Unions like Unite and FBU spoke out against key worker deaths
A minute's silence was held across Britain to commemorate the key workers who died with coronavirus led by President Miliband. Around 80 NHS and care staff had died with the virus, as had many transport workers. At 11:00, people across the country paused to join the minute's silence. Mike Adams, head of the Commonwealth College of Nursing, said he was "heartened to hear how many people took part". Premiers up and down the country led tributes, including Philip Hammond in Brighton, Sadig Khan in London, Andy Burnham in Manchester and Stephen Barclay in Anglia. 72 NHS staff and 6 care workers were confirmed to have died in hospitals in Britain. The rise was partly driven by an increasing number of deaths in care homes, which accounted for a third of all deaths. Deaths in care homes were continuing to rise, compared with the number of deaths in hospitals which appeared to have peaked and was coming down.
“Over 3,000 people have died from covid-19 in care homes in a fortnight, prompting calls to stop treating people in care homes as “second class citizens.” At the start of April, the figures showed 80 deaths among care home residents that were notified to the CQC. Over the next two weeks, the number of deaths increased to 3,232, a rapid escalation in mortality. The government has announced that it will publish deaths occurring in care homes alongside those in hospitals. The figures include data from the Office for National Statistics and the CQC, the health regulator, for the first time. Care homes must notify the CQC of any deaths among residents within two days, and it must be informed of whether covid-19 was suspected or confirmed. The ONS’ data show that deaths from all causes in care homes rose by 40% in a week, from 4927 in the week ending 10 April to 7316 in the week ending 17 April. The Health Foundation think tank, said, “Today’s data highlights the extent of the challenge for the social care sector in caring for the elderly.” - Care home deaths in England and Wales rise sharply, Adrian O’Dowd, British Medical Journal (2020)
The main battleground of the pandemic had moved from the hospital to the care home
In an attempt to combat the outbreak, the Government launched a nationwide track and trace app. Two million people downloaded the government's contact-tracing app within its first day of release. NHS Covid-19 instructs users to self-isolate for 14 days if it detects they were nearby someone who has the virus. It also had a check-in scanner to alert owners if a venue they have visited is found to be an outbreak hotspot. Anyone aged 16 and over was ordered to install it. Health Secretary Barry Gardiner said the app "helps us to find more people who are at risk of having the virus. Everybody who downloads the app will be helping to protect themselves and helping to protect their loved ones. The more people who download it, the more effective it will be," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. There was some confusion about whether users could ignore a notification telling them to stay at home. Gardiner told BBC Breakfast: "users must obey the command and would, in theory, be liable for fines of £2,000 or more if they did not. But Gardiner did acknowledge the Government had no way to check.
“The NHS has today unveiled a package of measures in the battle against coronavirus fake news – working with Google, Twitter, Instagram and Facebook. The measures include Google providing easy access to verified NHS guidance. As well as helping to promote good advice, the NHS has been fighting bad advice and misinformation about the virus in the media and online. The NHS worked with Twitter to suspend a false account posing as a hospital and putting out inaccurate information. The NHS is also working with Twitter, Instagram and Facebook to verify or ‘blue tick’ over 900 accounts belonging to NHS organisations. And following months of work, the NHS and Google will this week introduce new Knowledge Panels as part of Google search on mobile. This will provide the public with easy access to NHS information about more than 300 health conditions. Both Twitter and Facebook are directing users to the NHS website if they search for coronavirus. The announcement comes alongside the government’s action to crack down on fake news.” - NHS takes action against coronavirus fake news online, Federal NHS Press Release (2020)
Fake news and scams were becoming a major problem
The app couldn’t come at a better time, Britain was tied with France for the third highest number of Covid deaths in Europe, with countries’ death tolls sitting around 25,000. Fatalities across Britain reached 25,427, exceeding the 25,168 recorded in France – making Britain Europe’s third worst-hit country. The true figure was likely to be higher due to missed cases and a lag in reporting. Dr Alexandra Freeman, chair of the Centre for Risk Communication at Cambridge University said: “We are not doing very well and it’s been another very bad week. I don’t like this league table of who’s top and who’s not, but there’s no denying that these are serious numbers.” John Schofield, president of the HCSA, said ministers had “questions” to answer handling of the crisis, and called for a public inquiry. “This is a very sobering and unwelcome milestone. It’s of extreme concern that the Commonwealth now has the third-largest number of Covid deaths in Europe,” he said. “There will have to be a full investigation of the Covid response in due course to understand why we are experiencing such large numbers. It puts into question whether the government’s preparation at the start of the pandemic.
Whilst Britain was a fairly large international country, other largest countries had managed to avoid such major outbreaks, Germany sat at around 6,000 deaths, a quarter of Britain's total and even considerably poorer countries like Turkey, Ukraine and Poland had considerably lower cases. Whilst locking down quickly and harshly had probably prevented Britain from overtaking Italy or facing the disastrous death toll the United States faced, for the average member of the public they saw businesses collapsing, unemployment rising, and Britain still one of the most Covid-wracked states in the Western World. As the Commonwealth entered purdah and election season 2020, death was the world in everyone’s head.
“In March, President Miliband's chief scientific adviser said keeping deaths below 10,000 would be a “good outcome”. In April, Reuters reported that the government’s worst-case scenario was a death toll of 60,000. Britain still ranks among the countries worst affected by the pandemic, a list that includes Belgium, Spain and Italy. In Italy, the worst-hit country in Europe and whose population is about 85% of Britain’s, the death toll stood at 31,739 based on confirmed cases. Comparable British data showed around 25,000 deaths. Britain’s performance in part reflects the fact that it has been quicker to publish data on COVID-19 deaths than other European countries. Ministers say excess mortality - the number of deaths from all causes that exceed the average - is more meaningful because it is comparable. Early evidence, though, suggests Britain is faring badly on that front too. So far this year, there have been 40,000 excess deaths compared to a five-year average, the ONS said.” - Sick Man of Europe?, Andy Bruce, Reuters (2020)
The fate of Miliband's administration was now in the hands of the electorate
““The Miliband/Thornberry Government did all it could to prevent excess deaths.” How far do you agree? (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam
We've only got 3-4 chapters left, not counting epilogues, so we won't get too close to present day
Probably not, at least for the foreseeable future, I don't want to get into future history, especially considering how unpredictable COVID and stuff is. I might resurrect the thread every couple of years for a wikibox on the election day. But the 2020 Parliamentary Elections will be the end of the main story, twenty years in the Commonwealth is a nice round place to leave off.
For those who like my work I've got a couple of ideas for future TLs
- Some sort of UKIP TL, researching UKIP has been fascinating, I've got a vague idea of AV passing in 2011 and then Farage winning Eastleigh for UKIP in 2013 and UKIP going on to be a proper stable third party like the Lib Dems
- Since my thing seems to be the political ramifications of major constitutional change, I was thinking of a 90s/2000s TL set in the aftermath of a British Military Junta. The idea being Mountbatten takes power in the 60s and the Junta lasts around 30 years, so a TL around restoring democracy - a British version of la Transición española
I'm also planning to do some kind of AMA talking about my time as a political staffer as those stories tend to popular.
But the short answer is no there won't be a full sequel TL unfortunately.
British Military Junta, I feel you would do amazingly! I'm sure any idea, if you do pursue will be equally as interesting as this TL! Hope you have a good evening!
Damnit, now I want to read the post-Junta and the European Federation TLs NOW!!!!!
2020 Parliamentary Elections, Part 1
Sunak was a popular leader, having performed well at the dispatch box as Opposition Leader
"The latest YouGov poll from the Times shows an eye-watering twenty point lead for the Conservatives. Topline figures of CON 44%(+4), LAB 24%(-4), LDEM 9%(-2), GRN 7%(+1), BREX 4%(+1), SNP 4%(+1) and UKIP 2%(-). The brief rally-around-the-flag effect that Labour saw appears to have faded as the economic impact of lockdown really begins to bite. Rishi Sunak still dominates in prefered Prime Minister polling with 40% to Dodds' 26% and Jardine's 19%. Sunak's popularity appears to be a huge asset for the Conservatives with focus groups describing him as "energetic" and with "fresh ideas". Compared to Annelise Dodds who is described as "invisible" and "academic". Sunak of course benefits from his weekly clashes with Emily Thornberry and his right-of-reply addresses on the BBC. Compare this to Dodds who isn't even a Minister and has faded into the background as the COVID crisis grips the country. Polls also show significant voter fatigue with Labour and frustration at the party's handling of the pandemic and the financial crisis. All signs say this is Rishi Sunak's election to lose." - Post-purdah voting intention polls, CB Polling Report (2020)
Britain's ghost election was an election like no other, with a stay at home orders still in effect, face to face campaigning was banned, and the electoral arena moved from the canvasser and the doorstep to the phonebank and the WhatsApp group. This primarily benefited the Conservatives who had an older, but wealthier activist base, they could afford to splurge on Facebook adverts and expensive direct-delivery targeted mail. Labour, on the other hand, was unable to utilise its larger and younger activist base, images of dozens of young people canvassing for Miliband and Bartley during the Presidential election were replaced by Zoom phone banks of old hands begging for votes.
The poor British public were bombarded by phone canvassers
“Every weekday in Brighton, 20-year-old Labour party organizer Olivia McDonald logs onto a Zoom call and awaits the arrival of her phone-banking volunteers. For the next two hours, she helps anywhere from 10 to 20 callers troubleshoot their microphones and calling software. She answers questions in the chat, leads technical training and keeps a watchful eye as each little block on her screen gets to work. When it's time to make calls, McDonald's volunteers mute themselves, turn down their computer mics and dial their phones. McDonald stays on as moral and technical support; the volunteers use the Zoom chat or breakout rooms to ask for help and catch up between calls. "It always poses a bit of difficulty, because sometimes I need to tell someone something and their volume is down," McDonald said, laughing. She also uses the time to make her own calls, when she can, because her bosses expect their organizers to make around 300 calls a day.” - For get-out-the-vote organizers, life is just one long Zoom call, BBC News (2020)
Labour was up against a behometh Tory campaign
In this more media-focused campaign, leadership became all the more important, this was further bad news for Labour whose Lead Candidate: Annelise Dodds had all but disappeared from the public eye as the crisis hit. As chair of the Joint Parliamentary Finance Committee, Dodds was doing good work in Parliamentary backrooms helping to keep Britain's response to the pandemic funded and businesses afloat, but this was all behind the scenes work, far from the cameras and the media. Rishi Sunak meanwhile got to throw down with Labour’s outgoing Prime Minister Emily Thornberry every week, and he got a free television address every time the Government made on under Government impartiality rules. Most the commentariat agreed Sunak did well, often running rings around Thornberry as the voice of outraged Britons, the 39-year-old son of immigrants represented a fresh face and a new direction for the politically exhausted British public.
The election also moved away from the streets and into TV and radio shows such as Question Time and Politics Live. Political panel shows became increasingly important as it was the only way for politicians to get their message across to the public in a safe manner. Zoom based episodes of Question Time, with presenter Mishal Husain standing in an empty room in front of five scenes with panellists, saw their viewership increase. Academics commented that it was a rather old-fashioned election, similar to the 50s and 60s where TV and print media dominated the election, with party leaders, cabinet ministers and establishment media figures (mostly wealthier white men from London) dominating coverage, and local issues and candidates having very little say.
Sunak vs Dodds was the main story of the election
“Political power is still the preserve of white men according to new analyses by the New Statesman, one examining institutional power in government and the other assessing political influence online. It is already well known that the upper echelons of government are far from diverse. 60% of MPs are white men. But a New Statesman analysis shows that this imbalance is widespread across the top of the public sector. We examined the government's official list of civil servants who are paid more than £120,000. The most recent version of the list, with data from September 2019, lists 500 people above that threshold. The list is dominated by white men, who hold 70 per cent of the posts. The number of white men on the list of civil servants ranges across government. 71% in Buckingham to 79% in the Department for Transport, and 59% in the Department of Health. Six of the seven Foreign Office positions, and 10 of the 12 listed Treasury posts, were also held by white men.” - How white men still dominate British political life, Harry Lambert, New Statesman (2020)
The minor parties struggled in this climate, with the media running a fairly Presidential race between the two major party leaders. The Liberal Democrats were lumped in with criticisms of Labour, and both the Brexit Alliance and UKIP saw their support collapse as the Conservatives had a popular Eurosceptic Leader. The only minor party that seemed to do well was the Greens, who benefited from voters who had become fed up with Labour but would never dare vote Conservatives. The Greens preached a radical “zero-covid” strategy, as seen in places like New Zealand and they had benefited from several recent popular policies such as the explosion in offshore wind.
The Greens became the party of choice for left-wing voters disatisifed with Labour
For the Brexit Alliance, Sunak possessed an existential crisis, the Alliance was as loose coalition of several strands of Eurosceptic thought, from former Conservatives like Anne Widdecombe to UKIP refugees like Nathan Gill, Libertarians like Bill Etheridge, Farage loyalists like Richard Tice, and maverick media and business figures such as David Bull. The Alliance was already being pushed to its limits and with Rishi Sunak offering a referendum on the EU and a real chance of the Commonwealth’s first Eurosceptic Premier ever, Brexit Alliance voters were quickly jumping from the sinking Brexit Alliance ship and onto the Rishi Sunak train.
Labour also faced internal tension, Thornberry had seen a last-minute boost in her approval ratings in the early days of the pandemic, and there had been brief talk of a coup to cancel Thornberry’s retirement and have her continue to lead the party. There were also whispers of bumping off Dodds in favour of a Minister who had seen increased exposure during the pandemic like Defence Secretary Keir Starmer or Health Secretary Barry Gardiner. Whilst these voices were never loud enough to challenge Dodds’ place in the leadership, they did badly damage her campaign, with questions of her position and support in the party repeatedly coming up in interviews. Like the final days of the Brown Government, Labour was internally divided and beset on crises on all sides, rearranging the deck chairs wouldn’t save Labour, the party would need a miracle.
"A party cannot win an election while ignoring its past mistakes or fighting within its ranks. This seems to disqualify Annellisse Dodds. If Dodds was to step aside, who to take her place? There's Angela Rayner, the firebrand DWP Secretary who's overseen a popular Basic Income Policy. Or Andy Burnham, the "King in the North (West)". But there's only one man who can stop a Tory supermajority and that is Keir Starmer. Unity is the goal. The choice is to keep a leader who will lose and hope for a miracle, or follow the example set by New Zealand Labor and take a gamble. I no longer believe in miracles. The party needs to be united, to be managed into a credible body again. To appear a professional entity that voters can envisage continuing governing the country. This makes Starmer's forensic, technocratic, unflashy, steady approach the right choice, in my view. I understand and respect the fact others will have arrived at a different conclusion. I stand ready to work with you, under any leader.” - It’s Starmer’s time, Alex Andreou, Politics.CB (2020)
Defence Secretary Keir Starmer was one of the few Labour Ministers who had come off well during the pandemic, quickly mobilising the army to help in logistics
“Describe the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the 2020 Parliamentary Elections (30 Marks)” - A Level Politics Exam
Or the same mistakes as he did in July 2020. We DO NOT need to eat out to help out.
Don’t worry, some special episode every couple of years is perfect.
I would love a Federal Europe TL but I understand the needing of more information and project planning, so I vote for the British Junta.
I’d love to see either of those timeline ideas be created, they sound really interesting!