WI Drusus the Elder Lives (brother of Tiberius)

[John Fredrick Parker]

What if Nero Claudius Drusus, brother to the (OTL) future emperor Tiberius, doesn't fall off his horse while campaigning in Germania and subsequently die in 9 BCE?

On that note, I wonder what Nero Claudius succeeding with Tiberius as a co-emperor would have done.

Do you mean Drusus the Elder (Tiberius' brother)? Thing is, I put him on the list mainly because Agrippa's sons were young when their dad died, and had to think who else would Augustus turn to if, for example, he died early and his grandsons needed a "regent"? Tiberius himself was probably the top choice for much of their minority, but for a few years there (12-9 BC) I'd say his younger brother's star was shining brighter, so realistically he had to be considered.

Obviously, if Drusus the Elder lives longer, we have to think again about how that butterflies the fates of Agrippa's sons; also remember, Tiberius was still married to Julia following her second husbands death, and is the older brother on top of that, so it's a bit more complicated than just having Drusus live longer and then get imperial power in a few years.

My thought was more that if Drusus lived longer, but the two sons of Agrippa still died, then Augustus would leave both Tiberius and Nero Claudius both in power. Rather than Tiberius alone.

Well, Julia's banishment for adultery came seven years after the death of her brother-in-law;* the death of her two elder sons came within the next five years after that; and then, on top of that, Postumus still had to get banished a couple of years after that. Not only would we have to imagine how Drusus' career develops in all this time, and how it continues to compare to his elder brother, but we need to think of why Augustus would decide Tiberius needs a co-ruler to begin with.

If we're being honest, Drusus the Elder is more of an x-factor than a "could-have-been-emperor" in his own right; like I said earlier, it's a bit more complicated than "Drusus lives longer, time passes, then princep".

*EDIT ADD: Actually, now that I think of it, wouldn't his brother being alive mean that Tiberius is quite possibly in a different place, mentally, than he was OTL? That could have implications for how his marital issues play out.

Remember also who Tiberius choose to go in self-exile in Rhodes in 6 BC aka three years after Drusus’ death… I can not see this choice changing with Drusus still alive as was dictated by Tiberius unhappiness with his personal life but Drusus‘ survival could very well mean who Tiberius who remain on Rhodes for the remaining of his life (or at least until Augustus‘s death) while Drusus would be put forward as regent first and heir later without any need to call back Tiberius

Honestly, I'm not even sure Tiberius goes into self-imposed exile TTL; if Drusus doesn't die in 9 BC, then it stands to reason he remains Governor of Germania Inferior (and in charge of those legions), meaning Tiberius doesn't step in from summer 9 BC through 8 BC. Assuming the elder brother still serves again as Consul, as he did OTL in 7 BC (and I don't see why he wouldn't), he'd probably be looking to follow it up with a solid governorship somewhere (maybe following up his brother in Germania, maybe going to Syria, etc) -- in part because since his brother's alive, he doesn't have as much pain (for which he can fail to bury in work), and partly because he didn't have to step into his brother's shoes in Germania (so he hasn't tried burying what pain he does have with that kind of work yet). That actually keeps him busy up to circa 2 BC easily enough.

Drusus, for his part, can't stay in Germania forever -- he'll probably leave at the start of (his brother's consulship year of) 7 BC, or possibly 6 BC, or 5 BC at the very latest -- and technically speaking he can't be consul again until 3 BC (since he's already been consul in 9 BC). So he actually needs something to do around this time -- maybe Tiberius could step into Germnia following his second consulship. and Drusus can step into being governor somewhere else (maybe Syria)? It's worth noting that around this time, these two brothers, along with Ahenobarbus (Antonia Major's husband) and Varus (yes, that Varus), are probably the only people Augustus is going to be putting in charge of important provinces with multiple legions to command.

By the time we get to the point where OTL, Tiberius' marital issues were throwing the imperial family into scandal, we've got a context TTL that is potentially very different.

As an additional note to the above -- Gaius, eldest grandson of Augustus, would be given a military command at the very young age of 18 (circa 2-1 BC), so the seven or so years following our PoD are pretty important to note there as well. If Tiberius doesn't withdraw from public life during this time (starting in 6 BC), then I imagine he'd be spending a few more years trying to train Ceasar's heir (as he briefly tried to do OTL on campaign in 8 BC). That would also add to the noted differing context.

And with the changes over the next few years (9 to 3 BC) established -- how would the years thereafter (2 BC to 4 CE, to 6 or 7 CE), which OTL saw the fall of Julia and her three sons, be changed? At the very least, even if Gaius and Lucius both still die around this time,* Tiberius wouldn't need to be recalled from exile; honestly, I imagine he'd still be high on Augustus' list of potential heirs.

What do you guys think?

*Also worth noting -- even if Gaius only lives a couple more years or so, that may be enough for Livilla to become pregnant by him, potentially throwing another great-grandchild of Augustus into the mix.

CONSOLIDATION: There's something else more to keep in mind here -- that in the scandal that destroyed Julia the Elder in 2 BC, it extended beyond Julia simply committed adultery, but involved a faction of powerful aristocrats centered around one Iullus Antonius, son of Mark Antony and Fulvia, which may also have involved a plot on Augustus' life. Honestly, if Tiberius doesn't completely drop out of her life, even if their marriage is still troubled, I don't see Julia getting this deep into a political conspiracy opposed to her father. And if Julia doesn't get exiled, that has implications for her children in the next few years, specifically the early careers of Gaius and Lucius, the marriage of Agrippina, and the fate of Postumus.

Oh, and one more crazy detail -- maybe not even worth noting, but I'm going to note it anyway, just because it's so fun/baffling to think about:

Spoiler: I'm not sorry

You know how Drusus' eldest son is known to history as "Germanicus"? Well, that's because the was the name awarded to his father upon his death, which said eldest son subsequently inherited. Said son's personal name at birth is unknown, but it was either "Nero Claudius Drusus" or "Tiberius Claudius Nero"; in any event, we do know that the second son, who history came to know as the Emperor Claudius, was born "Tiberius Claudius Drusus". I take the time to note all this, because obviously if he doesn't die in 9 BC, Drusus (a) may very well still get the name "Germanicus", but live long enough after getting the name that he gets it to stick, and (b) won't have his sons become more known for the moniker than he is.

Meaning -- and I apologize in advance for this -- that the man OTL history knows as "Drusus" would TTL be known as "Germanicus"; the man OTL knows as "Germanicus" would TTL likely be known as "Nero"; and the man OTL knows as "Claudius" could be known as either "Tiberius" or "Drusus", depending on what his brother's name was.

Roman naming conventions -- gotta love em.

 

[isabella]

I doubt who the survival of Drusus the Elder (who I agree will be Germanicus here, with OTL Germanicus being likely Drusus or Nero) would prevent Tiberius‘ self-imposed exile as the main source of disappointment for Tiberius was his unhappiness with Julia (and his longing for Vipsania, who had since remarried) and that would not change. I think who seeing his brother’s happy marriage to Antonia Minor and not having any kind of obligation towards Antonia and her children will likely accelerated and not delayed such choice so we could easily have Tiberius going away in 7 or 8 BC…

EDIT ADD: Sorry, but there's something else more to keep in mind here -- that in the scandal that destroyed Julia the Elder in 2 BC, it extended beyond Julia simply committed adultery, but involved a faction of powerful aristocrats centered around one Iullus Antonius, son of Mark Antony and Fulvia, which may also have involved a plot on Augustus' life. Honestly, if Tiberius doesn't completely drop out of her life, even if their marriage is still troubled, I don't see Julia getting this deep into a political conspiracy opposed to her father. And if Julia doesn't get exiled, that has implications for her children in the next few years, specifically the early careers of Gaius and Lucius, the marriage of Agrippina, and the fate of Postumus.

Keep in mind who Iullus, younger son of Antonius was basically raised by Octavia and had married Marcella Maior (likely dead at this point) after Agrippa divorced her so I doubt who he was too involved against Augustus as he was seen as a family member and not an enemy as demonstrated by his political career.
I believe far likelier who Iullus’ ambition was to replace Tiberius as husband of Julia and so becoming more or less the protector of her sons in OTL and here maybe he could get that, sharing power and the role with his brother-in-law Drusus…

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Thinking about this again -- specifically about the few years following the PoD (9 BC to 3 BC) -- I think it’s pretty likely that Drusus ends his command in Germany at the start of 7 or 6 BC, and that Augustus would then offer him command of the eastern provinces (as he offered Tiberius 6 BC in OTL). I expect this is when Tiberius would be offered command of Germany; even if you think he still has personal reasons to want to go into exile, I would think a command like this would give him exactly the kind of distance from Julia he’s looking for (since, if they’re falling out, she’s less likely to follow him to a German camp than to a city in the east). So by the time Gaius is of age to actually do anything, that’s what I expect the two sons of Livia have been up to.

Now, if I'm right about that much, is there anything we can reasonable speculate about how Gaius and Lucius fare in this period, or about events in the next decade (2 BC to 8 CE)? I think there is; specifically, if nothing else, Augustus appointing a "master of the east" naturally means that person would be on the scene to handle the matter of Herod the Great's estate, as well as any issues that come from the Parthian Empire. (The latter means the disputes that arose around the ascension of Phraates V and were resolved by a treaty in 1 CE are unlikely to end up with Gaius being sent to the border.) In the more general sense -- and this much is my guess -- but I would think that if Augustus has a family member feels he can trust in Drusus, he may not feel it so necessary to elevate the careers of his grandsons so incredibly quickly (e.g. electing Gaius to the Consulship at the age of 19, etc).

Actually, it seems we've hit upon a very interesting question that seemingly hasn't come up on the board before -- namely, what if the Roman Empire had handled the succession question over the Herodian Kingdom differently (after 4 BC)? For example, is it possible they could have decided to ignore Herod's last minute changes to his will, and go with the original plan to give it all to Antipas; or if they do decide to still split it, they keep it mostly together, only splitting off those territories east of the Jordan River (Batanea, Perea)? Aside from the one guy I'm sure we're thinking of, how is the history of the region different if Rome doesn't shortly after this PoD turn Judea into a directly governed territory?

 

[vandevere]

Thinking about this again -- specifically about the few years following the PoD (9 BC to 3 BC) -- I think it’s pretty likely that Drusus ends his command in Germany at the start of 7 or 6 BC, and that Augustus would then offer him command of the eastern provinces (as he offered Tiberius 6 BC in OTL). I expect this is when Tiberius would be offered command of Germany; even if you think he still has personal reasons to want to go into exile, I would think a command like this would give him exactly the kind of distance from Julia he’s looking for (since, if they’re falling out, she’s less likely to follow him to a German camp than to a city in the east). So by the time Gaius is of age to actually do anything, that’s what I expect the two sons of Livia have been up to.

Now, if I'm right about that much, is there anything we can reasonable speculate about how Gaius and Lucius fare in this period, or about events in the next decade (2 BC to 8 CE)? I think there is; specifically, if nothing else, Augustus appointing a "master of the east" naturally means that person would be on the scene to handle the matter of Herod the Great's estate, as well as any issues that come from the Parthian Empire. (The latter means the disputes that arose around the ascension of Phraates V and were resolved by a treaty in 1 CE are unlikely to end up with Gaius being sent to the border.) In the more general sense -- and this much is my guess -- but I would think that if Augustus has a family member feels he can trust in Drusus, he may not feel it so necessary to elevate the careers of his grandsons so incredibly quickly (e.g. electing Gaius to the Consulship at the age of 19, etc).

Actually, it seems we've hit upon a very interesting question that seemingly hasn't come up on the board before -- namely, what if the Roman Empire had handled the succession question over the Herodian Kingdom differently (after 4 BC)? For example, is it possible they could have decided to ignore Herod's last minute changes to his will, and go with the original plan to give it all to Antipas; or if they do decide to still split it, they keep it mostly together, only splitting off those territories east of the Jordan River (Batanea, Perea)? Aside from the one guy I'm sure we're thinking of, how is the history of the region different if Rome doesn't shortly after this PoD turn Judea into a directly governed territory?

If things continue in the vein you have stated for Rome, I think it's far more likely that Augustus would adopts Drusus-AKA Germanicus Senior-to follow him should he die before his Grandsons are old enough to succeed him. He was apparently far more personable and certainly less dour than Tiberius. If Drusus inherits the Principate upon the death of Augustus, would the German Legion Revolts that happened OTL upon Augustus' death still happen?

Firstly, Germanicus Junior, Agrippina, and their kids, including Caligula, would be in the Eat, not Germany. And, perhaps more importantly, the revolting legionaries would be dealing with Tiberius, not Germanicus Junior.

This skews literally everything from OTL. Germanicus, Agrippina, and all their kids have a very good chance of surviving to adulthood. And Tiberius' reaction to the legions revolting would be vastly different from what occurred OTL...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If things continue in the vein you have stated for Rome, I think it's far more likely that Augustus would adopts Drusus-AKA Germanicus Senior-to follow him should he die before his Grandsons are old enough to succeed him. He was apparently far more personable and certainly less dour than Tiberius... This skews literally everything from OTL. Germanicus, Agrippina, and all their kids have a very good chance of surviving to adulthood. And Tiberius' reaction to the legions revolting would be vastly different from what occurred OTL...

This is actually a really good point. So it looks like my "general sense" of how Gaius and Lucius would fare (circa 5 BC to 5 CE) was, if anything, too cautious in deviating from OTL; the fundamental point is, Augustus isn't obsessed with making his very young grandchildren "ready" to assume to the imperial throne as soon as possible, since he's more than comfortable with Drusus as his direct heir for the time being. Which most certainly means they're likely to live longer.

If Drusus inherits the Principate upon the death of Augustus, would the German Legion Revolts that happened OTL upon Augustus' death still happen?

Well, now we're getting a little ahead of ourselves -- after all, just because Drusus the Elder has lived longer than OTL doesn't mean he's going to outlive Augustus...

 

[vandevere]

This is actually a really good point. So it looks like my "general sense" of how Gaius and Lucius would fare (circa 5 BC to 5 CE) was, if anything, too cautious in deviating from OTL; the fundamental point is, Augustus isn't obsessed with making his very young grandchildren "ready" to assume to the imperial throne as soon as possible, since he's more than comfortable with Drusus as his direct heir for the time being. Which most certainly means they're likely to live longer.

I assume Agrippina keeps her ambitions in check this TL?

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I assume Agrippina keeps her ambitions in check this TL?

I mean, she’s not even going to be marrying until circa 1-5 CE; if she still marries the eldest son of Drusus, she’s still in a good position to be empress down the line. How things develop after that depend on subsequent events.

Let’s try to take stock of the likely situation for imperial family circa 5 CE - - you have Drusus and his three children. Nero (OTL Germanicus) is likely still married to Agrippina (daughter of Julia); disabled Tiberius (OTL knows him as Claudius) is likely married to Aemilia Lepida (granddaughter of Julia); and Livilla is married to Gaius Caesar (eldest son of Julia). Of Julia and her other progeny (ie the other direct descendants of Augustus) - - Julia may or may not be disgraced, but her husband Tiberius (possibly called the Elder TTL) hasn’t remarried; her daughter and Aemila’s mother Julia has no other children, and may or may not soon find herself disgraced (after her daughter is safely married); and Lucius and Postumus, I’m not sure. Also, Tiberius (the Elder) has a son by his last marriage that he’s lookin to see married.

So regardless of whether it’s his elder son or his son-in-law, the secondary heir will be meant to continue the line through Drusus. The only really open questions here are -- what happens to Lucius and Postumus, and what does Drusus’ brother Tiberius do?

 

[vandevere]

So regardless of whether it’s his elder son or his son-in-law, the secondary heir will be meant to continue the line through Drusus. The only really open questions here are -- what happens to Lucius and Postumus, and what does Drusus’ brother Tiberius do?

OTL Lucius died young. Some historians say natural causes, others suspect poison. But no cause of death was given, and it's just as likely to be illness as poison. As for OTL Postumus, there were some historians who suggested he was, let us say...unacceptable. Apparently he was imprisoned, I forget the name of the island he was exiled to. He might also have been murdered, on someone's orders. Augustus, Livia, or even Tiberius, which left room for an apparent imposter to turn up. Both of these two men might have entirely different lives this TL.

As for Tiberius in your TL, my reading of the man is that he really didn't want to be Princeps at all. I think he would be very happy to leave the Imperial Mess in Drusus' hands and remain what he was through most of Augustus' reign, Rome's Premiere General...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

OTL Lucius died young. Some historians say natural causes, others suspect poison. But no cause of death was given, and it's just as likely to be illness as poison. As for OTL Postumus, there were some historians who suggested he was, let us say...unacceptable. Apparently he was imprisoned, I forget the name of the island he was exiled to. He might also have been murdered, on someone's orders. Augustus, Livia, or even Tiberius, which left room for an apparent imposter to turn up.

You know, put this way, I’m more inclined now just to say Lucius and Postumus have similar fates to OTL; that way, the three remaining lines from Julia (Gaius, Agrippina, and Julia the Younger’s daughter) are all tied by marriage to the offspring of Drusus, seemingly tying things up with a nice bow circa 6 CE or so.

Of course, it was around that time OTL that the empire started to face some challenges. Even if Tiberius wants nothing to do with the Principate, he’s still one of the most accomplished military commanders Augustus has. So if something were to happen to Drusus around this point…

 

[vandevere]

You know, put this way, I’m more inclined now just to say Lucius and Postumus have similar fates to OTL; that way, the three remaining lines from Julia (Gaius, Agrippina, and Julia the Younger’s daughter) are all tied by marriage to the offspring of Drusus, seemingly tying things up with a nice bow circa 6 CE or so.

Of course, it was around that time OTL that the empire started to face some challenges. Even if Tiberius wants nothing to do with the Principate, he’s still one of the most accomplished military commanders Augustus has. So if something were to happen to Drusus around this point…

Yes, in 9 AD we have Publius Quinctilius Varus and his lost legions in the Battle of Teutoburg Forest. We also have the Pannonian Revolt in 6 AD. Busy times ahead for both Drusus and Tiberius...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

So here's what I'm thinking:

• 7 BC -- Tiberius serves as Consul, Drusus serves his last years as Commander of the German Legions
• 6 BC -- Tiberius assumes command of the German Legions, Drusus is named Master of the East
• 5 BC -- Gaius Caesar (15) begins his military service, serving under Tiberius
• 4 BC -- Herod the Great dies, Drusus oversees the succession of his kingdom (Antipas gets most of it); Tiberius leads an expedition across the Rhine
• 2 BC -- Lucius Caesar begins military service
• 1 BC -- Gaius marries Livilla; Tiberius (with Julia) returns to Rome from Germany; Drusus makes a treaty with Phraates V (three years sooner than OTL)
• 1 CE -- Drusus returns to Rome from the east; Tiberius serves a third year as Consul
• 2 CE -- Lucius Caesar dies; Drusus serves a second year as Consul
• 3 and 4 CE -- Scandal; Tiberius and Julia the Elder were long rumored to be "separated"; Tiberius withdraws from public life, as the lack of military command gives him no distraction from his unhappy marriage; subsequently, Julia is exposed for adultery; she is exiled, and Tiberius is on the out of favor with Augustus

When we get to 5 and 6 CE, we get several important events -- Agrippina marries the elder son of Drusus, while Aemilia Lepida marries his younger son; meanwhile, Tiberius' son Drusus likely marries, but not into the core Dynasty. For the latter, I'm thinking a daughter of Ahenobarbus, thus creating a familial alliance between the three most accomplished generals in the empire (other than Drusus). It's also around this time that Gaius Caesar dies TTL -- a couple of years later than OTL, but those extra months have a substantial effect, as Livilla is now pregnant with Augustus' great-grandchild. Postumus also likely falls from grace around this time as well. There's also a fire and a food shortage in Rome.

Oh -- and also the Illyrian Revolt. And Arminius returns to Germania. The Empire is about to have a period of what could be considered a degree of crisis. Assuming Julia the Younger also falls from grace roughly as OTL, that means the lineage of Augustus now only has Agrippina (married to Drusus' elder son), his infant great-grandchild (born of Drusus' daughter), and technically Aemilia Lepida (married to Drusus' younger son), in the line of succession.

So now, I'd like to ask a couple of questions about what happens next -- first, supposing, as he commanded legions during this period of crisis, Drusus were to die? Not only how this would affect the succession, but also who does Augustus appoint to deal with to command the legions to deal with the problems in Illyria, Germania, etc -- or would it plainly be Tiberius? And does the latter complicate the former?

And that brings me to my next question -- what happens to the Principate when Augustus dies? I don't just mean who "inherits", but does the institution he built around himself to rebuild Rome following the civil wars long survive him? Or does the idea of a "first citizen" undergo further evolution, different from OTL? How might "Post-Augustus" Roman government compare TTL to OTL, given the changes in how we got here?

Thanks.

 

[isabella]

So here's what I'm thinking:

• 7 BC -- Tiberius serves as Consul, Drusus serves his last years as Commander of the German Legions
• 6 BC -- Tiberius assumes command of the German Legions, Drusus is named Master of the East
• 5 BC -- Gaius Caesar (15) begins his military service, serving under Tiberius
• 4 BC -- Herod the Great dies, Drusus oversees the succession of his kingdom (Antipas gets most of it); Tiberius leads an expedition across the Rhine
• 2 BC -- Lucius Caesar begins military service
• 1 BC -- Gaius marries Livilla; Tiberius (with Julia) returns to Rome from Germany; Drusus makes a treaty with Phraates V (three years sooner than OTL)
• 1 CE -- Drusus returns to Rome from the east; Tiberius serves a third year as Consul
• 2 CE -- Lucius Caesar dies; Drusus serves a second year as Consul
• 3 and 4 CE -- Scandal; Tiberius and Julia the Elder were long rumored to be "separated"; Tiberius withdraws from public life, as the lack of military command gives him no distraction from his unhappy marriage; subsequently, Julia is exposed for adultery; she is exiled, and Tiberius is on the out of favor with Augustus

When we get to 5 and 6 CE, we get several important events -- Agrippina marries the elder son of Drusus, while Aemilia Lepida marries his younger son; meanwhile, Tiberius' son Drusus likely marries, but not into the core Dynasty. For the latter, I'm thinking a daughter of Ahenobarbus, thus creating a familial alliance between the three most accomplished generals in the empire (other than Drusus). It's also around this time that Gaius Caesar dies TTL -- a couple of years later than OTL, but those extra months have a substantial effect, as Livilla is now pregnant with Augustus' great-grandchild. Postumus also likely falls from grace around this time as well. There's also a fire and a food shortage in Rome.

Oh -- and also the Illyrian Revolt. And Arminius returns to Germania. The Empire is about to have a period of what could be considered a degree of crisis. Assuming Julia the Younger also falls from grace roughly as OTL, that means the lineage of Augustus now only has Agrippina (married to Drusus' elder son), his infant great-grandchild (born of Drusus' daughter), and technically Aemilia Lepida (married to Drusus' younger son), in the line of succession.

So now, I'd like to ask a couple of questions about what happens next -- first, supposing, as he commanded legions during this period of crisis, Drusus were to die? Not only how this would affect the succession, but also who does Augustus appoint to deal with to command the legions to deal with the problems in Illyria, Germania, etc -- or would it plainly be Tiberius? And does the latter complicate the former?

And that brings me to my next question -- what happens to the Principate when Augustus dies? I don't just mean who "inherits", but does the institution he built around himself to rebuild Rome following the civil wars long survive him? Or does the idea of a "first citizen" undergo further evolution, different from OTL? How might "Post-Augustus" Roman government compare TTL to OTL, given the changes in how we got here?

Thanks.

Julia’s scandal could very well not happen here. She can be allowed to divorce the self-exiled Tiberius and remarry to Iullus Antionius (as they likely wanted) and is unlikely who the plot in which Julia Minor and her husband were involved would happen

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Julia’s scandal could very well not happen here. She can be allowed to divorce the self-exiled Tiberius and remarry to Iullus Antionius (as they likely wanted) and is unlikely who the plot in which Julia Minor and her husband were involved would happen

Julia the Elder -- easy enough to change.

Julia the Younger -- double checked, and you're right that modern historians think that her adultery likely wasn't the real reason for her exile, but her husband's plot; however, I'm less sure said plot doesn't happen here (not that I can find much on the actual plotted revolt itself). So I'm inclined to think she still finds herself exiled TTL, partly just to simplify the lineage situation (i.e. all tied up in marriage with children of Drusus)

 

[isabella]

Julia the Elder -- easy enough to change.

Julia the Younger -- double checked, and you're right that modern historians think that her adultery likely wasn't the real reason for her exile, but her husband's plot; however, I'm less sure said plot doesn't happen here (not that I can find much on the actual plotted revolt itself). So I'm inclined to think she still finds herself exiled TTL, partly just to simplify the lineage situation (i.e. all tied up in marriage with children of Drusus)

Whatever happened in a world in which Julia the younger’s mother is not exiled and her family not sidelined as OTL is extremely unlikely who her husband would plot… Still Julia the younger and her husband would not have any political power and little Aemilia could remain their only child (say who Julia miscarried her second child and was unable to conceive again or whatever) as in OTL her parents‘ exile meant who Aemilia’s engagement to Claudius was broken.

 

[vandevere]

Anyone have thoughts on any of these questions specifically?

For the second question, it all depends on how old Drusus' kids are when he dies. If they're older at Drusus' time of death, then maybe Augustus wil formally adopt Germanicus instead of Tiberius, leaving Tiberius free to command the Legions in Germany, and possibly allowing Germanicus to live longer, and his kids to grow up relatively* normally...

* For a Given value of normal, of course. These kids will be the following Generation's crop of heirs, so Normal really isn't in the picture here...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

For the second question, it all depends on how old Drusus' kids are when he dies.

The eldest son of Drusus would be in his 20’s (mid 20’s at the oldest); so around the age Caligula was when he came to power OTL. If Augustus dies on schedule, he’d still be less than 30; but it’s also totally doable for him to die a little earlier than OTL.

That ties very interesting back to the third question -- what does this mean for the Principate as an institution?

 

[vandevere]

The eldest son of Drusus would be in his 20’s (mid 20’s at the oldest); so around the age Caligula was when he came to power OTL. If Augustus dies on schedule, he’d still be less than 30; but it’s also totally doable for him to die a little earlier than OTL.

That ties very interesting back to the third question -- what does this mean for the Principate as an institution?

Unless Germanicus is totally inept, the Principate will probably chug along fairly decently. Remember, the OTL Principate survived the ugliness of Tiberius' reign, Sejanus and all the Proscriptions that went along with it, Caligula, and Nero. If it could survive all that, it'll probably survive whatever happens through the reign pf Germanicus and his immediate heirs...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

@vandevere I think you misunderstand- - I’m not talking so much about whether or not the Principate survives, but how it will evolve. And make no mistake, it did evolve OTL under Tiberius’ reign, and from the shock of Caligula’s reign and assassination. (I would also say it evolved in a crucial way once more with the transition from the Julio-Claudian to Flavian Dynasties, but that’s another subject entirely.)

 

[vandevere]

@vandevere I think you misunderstand- - I’m not talking so much about whether or not the Principate survives, but how it will evolve. And make no mistake, it did evolve OTL under Tiberius’ reign, and from the shock of Caligula’s reign and assassination. (I would also say it evolved in a crucial way once more with the transition from the Julio-Claudian to Flavian Dynasties, but that’s another subject entirely.)

I think the Principate will probably evolve pretty much the same way it did OTL, up to a point. Germanicus seems to have been a more affable, more approachable personality than OTL Tiberius, and therefore he will certainly be more popular than Tiberius was. I don't, however, know how good a Ruler Germanicus would've have made, and that's what is key to how the Principate evolves. Also, it depends on how long he lives, and how old his sons are when he dies.

I seem to recall that Germanicus had at least two sons who were older than Caligula OTL. Assuming they reach a mature age before their father dies, we might see a sort of Primogeniture Succession unfold...

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

I think the Principate will probably evolve pretty much the same way it did OTL, up to a point.

Let's see if we can look at a few specific examples:

• Would the legions be as likely to be intensely loyal to a young man back in Rome, as opposed to the man in the field commanding them (e.g. Tiberius)?
• Would Nero* abolish the popular assemblies (as Tiberius did in 15 CE OTL)?
• Would he see the scope of the lex maiestatis expanded (as Tiberius did OTL)?
• Do the Praetorian Guard establish a barracks within the City of Rome itself (as they did 21 CE OTL)?
• Would there be an increase in the levels of property confiscation, exile, and treason trials for senators and equestrians (as happened in the 20's OTL)?

And that's stuff off the top of my head, more or less. In any event, it's pretty clear to me there's plenty of room for the Basic Outline of Roman Government to be something very different from what it was OTL; it won't be until a generation after Augustus' death that Roman society will have even the slightest conception of what a "normal" emperor looks like, which means there's a lot or room for what his political legacy becomes.

Does this make sense?

*(he'd be called Nero TTL, since his father would be known as Germanicus)