WI No large scale Jewish settlement in Palestine 20th

Assume euther no Balfour declaration or Turkey staying neutral in WW1.

I think that anti semitism would be less of a factor in the West and MUCH less common in the Islamic World. More Jewish migration to South Africa and more to the USA after 1945

Any thoughts?
 
The main event that caused lots of Jewish migration to Palestine was the immigration restrictions in the early 1920s US.

From 1800 to 1890, the Jewish population in Palestine goes from 7 to 43 thousand (2.0% yearly growth). From 1890 to 1922, it goes from 43 to 84 thousand (2.1% yearly growth). From 1922 to 1931 it goes from 84 to 175 thousand (8.5% yearly growth). From 1931 to 1947 it goes from 175 to 630 thousand (8.3% yearly growth).

In my opinion, if the US didn’t take a nativist turn, much more than 500 thousand extra Jews would make it to the US from 1922 to 1947.

Without a change in US policy, South Africa seems plausible but it’s probably going to be less than the 500k.
 
Assume euther no Balfour declaration or Turkey staying neutral in WW1.

I think that anti semitism would be less of a factor in the West and MUCH less common in the Islamic World. More Jewish migration to South Africa and more to the USA after 1945

Any thoughts?
Let’s just say there is ample evidence of widespread antisemitism in the West in the first half of the 20th century that had nothing to do with Israel, so I wouldn’t be so sure about antisemitism being less of a factor. If anything, there may be more antisemitism in the present day in the West given there would likely be more Jews living there without an Israel.
 
I'd say that without emigration to Palestine then Islamic anti semitism doesn't become what it is : I think the Muslim links with fascism were due in part to this. No Grand Mufti of Jerusalem's strife with the British means less rapprochement with Hitler ...maybe non at all. The Jews throughout all the Muslim states carry on as in the middle ages , work within the Koranic restrictions and pay their levies.
In France at least ,there are reports that some jews were hidden in the Grande Mosque in Paris during the war and passed off as Muslims.

"In a 1991 documentary, director Derri Berkani reported that during the Second World War and the occupation of France by the Nazis, the Great Mosque of Paris served as a site of resistance for Muslims living in France.[19] The Algerians of the Francs-Tireurs et Partisans (FTP; Partisan Snipers) made it their mission to secure and protect British parachutists and find them shelter. Built on caves, the Mosque permitted them to secretly reach the Bièvre, a tributary of the Seine.[20] The FTP also helped Jewish families or families whom they knew or at the request of friends, relocate to the Mosque while waiting for transit papers for passage to the Free Zone or to cross the Mediterranean Sea to the Maghreb. Jewish refugees were given papers declaring that they were Muslim and members of the mosque in order to protect them from persecution.[21] Doctor Albert Assouline recorded some 1600 ration cards (one per person) that had been furnished by the Great Mosque of Paris for the Jews who had found refuge there.[22] This little-known history was recounted in Karen Gray Ruelle and Deborah Durland DeSaix's, The Grand Mosque of Paris: A Story of How Muslims Rescued Jews During the Holocaust, a book for ages 8–12, published in the U.S. in 2009 (also in French and Japanese editions).

The figures concerning the number of Jews housed and saved through the Paris Mosque during this period vary considerably according to various authors. Annie-Paule Derczansky [fr], President of the Association des Bâtisseuses de Paix (Association of the Female Builders of Peace), reports that, according to Albert Assouline, who appears in Birkani's film, 1600 people were saved. On the other hand, according to Alain Boyer, former official working with religions for the French Ministry of the Interior, the number was closer to 500 people.

A call for witnesses to the circumstances of Jews saved by the Great Mosque of Paris between 1942 and 1944 was launched on 3 April 2005, at the same time as the Medal of Justice (médaille des Justes) was awarded by Yad Vashem to the descendants of the rector of the Mosque, Si Kaddour Benghabrit, who had saved the lives of a hundred Jews, including the singer Salim Halali, by giving them certificates of Muslim identity from the administrative personnel of the Mosque, thus allowing them to escape arrest and deportation.[23][24]

Serge Klarsfeld, the President of the Association des filles et des fils de déportés juifs de France (Association of the Sons and Daughters of Jewish Deportees from France), is, however, more skeptical about the figure of 1500 Jews saved and states that "of the 2,500 members of our organization" there "is nobody who has ever heard of it." He considers, nonetheless, that the campaign to launch an appeal to witnesses undertaken by the Association des Bâtisseuses de Paix to be "positive."[25] " Wikipedia
 
Zionist settlement started in the 1800s.
Yes but it was much slower than in the 20s through 40s.
From 1800 to 1890, the Jewish population in Palestine goes from 7 to 43 thousand (2.0% yearly growth). From 1890 to 1922, it goes from 43 to 84 thousand (2.1% yearly growth). From 1922 to 1931 it goes from 84 to 175 thousand (8.5% yearly growth). From 1931 to 1947 it goes from 175 to 630 thousand (8.3% yearly growth).
2% yearly growth versus 8.5% is a huge change. 2% is able to be achieved with high birth rates, 8.5% is a torrent of immigration.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
is : I think the Muslim links with fascism were due in part to this. No Grand Mufti of Jerusalem's strife with the British means less rapprochement with Hitler ...maybe non at all.
In part to Zionist immigration an political projects, but only in part.

Part of it was also quite simply “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” alliance machinations against the mandatory powers, Britain and France. The Mufti’s strife was over Jewish Zionist migration and activity, but also simply over “what are you even doing here Britain? And why are you in charge instead of me, or an Arab King or the Ottoman Sultan?”
 
Well, whatever way which avoids rise of nazism and Holocaust would kill lot of Jewish migration to Palestine. And this would make eventually Zionism as just fringe ideology.
 
If the POD is that the Dreyfus affair goes differently or if the Balfour Declaration instead just says that a Jewish cultural center will be established within the British Empire instead of a Jewish homeland in Palestine then it will probably reduce the rate of Jewish immigration to Palestine to a comparable rate to the Second Aaliyah from 1904 to 1914. In that case, assuming the Holocaust still occurs and the US develops a strong nativist stance like IOTL, I’m not sure where most European Jews who went to Palestine would end up since Western countries (especially the USA) were reluctant to open their doors IOTL until after Israel was established. And with Arab nationalism still a potential factor, we could also see more Jews in North Africa and the Middle East displaced.
 
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