I think this is extremely unlikely. Since Spain has been stagnating in military power and the US has a strong military. But if they did well defensively and beat back the Americans, what would happen next?
What if Spain somehow won the Spanish-American War
- Thread starter JewishBolshevik
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Had this happened (very unlikely) the US would lose a lot of prestige since they just lost to a dying empire and didn't acquire the GP status as a consequence of the war, I don't think this would massively change WW1 however.
What would be changed is that the Philippines remain in Spanish hands which would significantly change WW2.
Well, its likely that both the Philipines and Cuba would have broken away. Both had local independence movements and insurgencies. Cuba would have likely won independence within a decade or so. There's a chance of Philipine independence, particularly if backed by Britain, or if the other colonial powers can't agree on who takes over. There's a possibility of partition.
A humiliated United States might not be inclined to invade and occupy Haiti, the Dominican Republic. Possibly less influence in Central America, or other countries being more competitive in that region. Possibly more reluctance to get involved in a European war at all.
A humiliated United States might not be inclined to invade and occupy Haiti, the Dominican Republic. Possibly less influence in Central America, or other countries being more competitive in that region. Possibly more reluctance to get involved in a European war at all.
Winning the war could be a stretch, but a better prepared Spanish military could have given the US some nasty surprises that could lead to Spanish keeping Cuba. In the end, the US' last experience in peer to peer warfare was thirty years earlier. Likewise, Native Americans lacked machine guns and rapid fire artillery.
The Spanish had theoretical access to relatively unknown weapons (crew served machine guns) that would have turned Teddy Roosevelt's charge (or was it a "bum rush"? into a blood bath. Maybe....
- Spanish go "Winter War Finnish" and every pro Spanish, or even moderately pro Spanish male in Cuba is a member of a well drilled reserve infantry company.
- Then, the Spanish go "WWI BEF or WWII USMC": What ever limitations the rest of the Spanish military has, three say, "Carlist Brigades" are kept honed to razor's edges. These select Brigades are also given machine gun companies and the finest in rapid fire French light artillery. They are prepped for rapid deployment anywhere.
- Yellow Journalism works in Spanish to. Sanctioned stories circulate of the Americans as a KKK mob bent on raping nuns and desecrating Catholic churches (not necessarily in that order). The local Cuban population now fears "liberation". The "fire brigades" are going "Knights of Saint John" in regards to commitment.
1898: The US landings on Cuba walk into a machine gun driven buzzsaw . Roosevelt's charge, and Roosevelt himself are, well, "terminated". The totality resembles tales of Agnicourt. Meanwhile, Manila is looking like a foreshadowing of Tsushima.....
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I'm not quite sure how they could win, but I'd say if they win they'd be able to keep Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Philippines for quite long, as the Americans ended being more despised than the Spaniards in Puerto Rico and the Philippines and as despised in Cuba.
I think this could possibly have huge consequences in the world wars, probably more in ww2 than in ww1 I think.
The US will be overall have a less expansionist policy. Hawaii may not be annexed or its annexation might be delayed, depending on how they lose. A lot less focus on building naval bases in the Pacific. Haiti and the Dominican Republic would probably not be occupied. The construction of the Panama canal will be delayed and may not be built by the Americans. An interesting consequence is that Roosevelt may never become president, because he gained a lot of popular support from the war. The US may not join ww1 which completely changes the war.
I think a lot of how this affect the world wars is in the Spanish government, they may completely change their policy from overconfidence and do something like joining ww1 or prefer peace for it's hard to tell when their colonies might rebel, there's thr possibility that somehow this makes Spain improve and they are the one to build a canal in central America.
I think that in case this doesn't affect ww1 that mich this will surely affect Japan, as they becoming a military dictatorship was a consequence of the US actively trying to isolate them after contesting the German colonies in the Pacific, so if Spain keeps many of this islands and the US doesn't have a reliable base like the Philippines then there's no reason to isolate Japan, so the Anglo-Japanese alliance may survive and Japan never turns into a dictatorship, which would definitely affect ww2.
I think this could possibly have huge consequences in the world wars, probably more in ww2 than in ww1 I think.
The US will be overall have a less expansionist policy. Hawaii may not be annexed or its annexation might be delayed, depending on how they lose. A lot less focus on building naval bases in the Pacific. Haiti and the Dominican Republic would probably not be occupied. The construction of the Panama canal will be delayed and may not be built by the Americans. An interesting consequence is that Roosevelt may never become president, because he gained a lot of popular support from the war. The US may not join ww1 which completely changes the war.
I think a lot of how this affect the world wars is in the Spanish government, they may completely change their policy from overconfidence and do something like joining ww1 or prefer peace for it's hard to tell when their colonies might rebel, there's thr possibility that somehow this makes Spain improve and they are the one to build a canal in central America.
I think that in case this doesn't affect ww1 that mich this will surely affect Japan, as they becoming a military dictatorship was a consequence of the US actively trying to isolate them after contesting the German colonies in the Pacific, so if Spain keeps many of this islands and the US doesn't have a reliable base like the Philippines then there's no reason to isolate Japan, so the Anglo-Japanese alliance may survive and Japan never turns into a dictatorship, which would definitely affect ww2.
I agree with you except on the Philippines. At that time Madrid would have been open to get rid of it. It has very little value as Spain has no major commercial interests in Asia and was already in open revolt by the time the war started, not to mention it is very far away from Spain.
Cuba on the other hand, was Spain’s richest territory. If I recall correctly, it was richer than any Spanish province and would have eventually been incorporated into Spain proper. They are not going to let it go that easily.
Yeah, I am quite sure they will sell the Philippines to whoever gives the biggest offer. Probably either Germany or Japan, considering they were the ones who were actually interested. And Philippines sale will probably include the Pacific Islands, as well, as some kind of deal.
About Cuba and Puerto Rico? Those will stay and there is no way Spain would sell those or let them be independent. Cuba was Spain's "Crown Jewel", to begin with, and was more profitable than a lot of the African Colonies the rest of the Empires had. And Puerto Rico was loyal to Spain to the very end and had to be stripped as "spoils of war" after the end of it.
The Spanish did have machineguns, the Americans used Gatlin guns. The Spanish had better bolt action Mauser rifles than the U.S. issued rifle, while many volunteer & militia regiments were armed with trapdoor Springfields. They still lost.
The first and foremost important question is: how is defined "win" here? Because there are many ways of defining this and the consequences are very different.
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
This is interesting, and things could go a couple different ways.
Would America just stop trying entirely with international muscle-flexing for a generation or two?
Or get serious regarding naval and military affairs, out of embarrassment?
And if provoked, by say Pancho Villa or German sabotage or submarine warfare, be able to respond with more professional effect?
Would America just stop trying entirely with international muscle-flexing for a generation or two?
Or get serious regarding naval and military affairs, out of embarrassment?
And if provoked, by say Pancho Villa or German sabotage or submarine warfare, be able to respond with more professional effect?
If they win, the "crisis of the 98" is butterflied for some time and Spain remains as "stable" as pre-1898 until something shakes Spain to the core as the `98 did. If they keep Cuba and Phillipines, the problem remains unsolved, unless some kind of autonomy is applied to both of them, but it would too late by then. Depending on how Cuba and the Phillipines are lost, Spain is going to go one way or... who knows.
Math
Kicked
The autonomy of Cuba and Puerto Rico will come (And puerto rico received this from sagasta in 1897)
es.m.wikipedia.org
Carta Autonómica de Puerto Rico (1897) - Wikipedia, la enciclopedia libre
Math
Kicked
And before 1897 there were Puerto Rican deputies in the courts in Madrid (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Román_Baldorioty_de_Castro)The autonomy of Cuba and Puerto Rico will come (And puerto rico received this from sagasta in 1897)
Carta Autonómica de Puerto Rico (1897) - Wikipedia, la enciclopedia libre
And in cuba Also: https://pares.mcu.es/ParesBusquedas20/catalogo/description/2292010
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I think it's possible if Prince Leopold of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen accepts the offer of the Spanish Crown in 1870. With that, there'd be more Prussian influence in Spain and perhaps greater militarization of Spain as a result. It's still not a given but a more militarized Spain with Prussian influence probably stands a better chance.
Math
Kicked
Following the above scenario, So Leopold hohenzollern took the throne, and Germany helps Spain to militarize, Well we have to take into account something both for the Spanish-American war and for the future of the TL, A weak Spain, managed to cross the ocean with more than 150 thousand soldiers in the 19th century, a better Spain will not have much trouble taking a large number of soldiers from the peninsula and also recruiting in these territories principally puerto rico And cuba, I think That hohenzollern Spain could come into conflict with the United States over the Monroe Doctrine , If Spain defeats or holds off the Americans, the Spanish will not be intimidated and may try to influence Latin America in the 20th century, Something that put them in shock with the Monroe Doctrine.
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I have a recollection of reading that, on paper the Spanish looked better, so in Europe it was expected that Spain would win. That said, while I think 'winning' is out of reach, I think that "Not losing" is eminently possible.
That said, if Spain manages to not lose, it will still suffer heavily for it, and other vultures might show up...
Hmmm. Thinking about this more deeply, one way for Spain to win the Spanish American war is to have a different, more powerful, more coherent Spain.
So what you'd probably want to do is twitch the Spanish even a decade or two back.
Of course, a more powerful, more coherent Spain might deter the US into just going after Mexico again.
So what you'd probably want to do is twitch the Spanish even a decade or two back.
Of course, a more powerful, more coherent Spain might deter the US into just going after Mexico again.
I'm not sure if there is any viability of full political voting rights to Cuba and Puerto Rico along with being treated as a full part of spain since there populations are small enough compared to mainland spain that while noticeable it would not create a "Brazil problem" that Portugal saw where granting full rights would have in effect turned Portugal into a colony of Brazil due to its population being larger then the europian tarritorys, this was also a similar road block with the British and India in a imperial federation but in the case of spain this viable.
en.m.wikipedia.org
en.m.wikipedia.org
United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves - Wikipedia
Imperial Federation - Wikipedia
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Math
Kicked
In 1897 the spanish granted autonomy to Puerto Rico, which would have its own government and elections with universal male suffrage, in addition, before that, both in Cuba and Puerto Rico there were elections for the Spanish court, One of these elected officials from Puerto Rico advocated for Puerto Rico's autonomy and the abolition of slavery in puerto rico and achieved both
Math
Kicked
"The Charter consisted of 70 articles divided into 9 titles, plus 3 additional articles and 2 transitory articles.I'm not sure if there is any viability of full political voting rights to Cuba and Puerto Rico along with being treated as a full part of spain since there populations are small enough compared to mainland spain that while noticeable it would not create a "Brazil problem" that Portugal saw where granting full rights would have in effect turned Portugal into a colony of Brazil due to its population being larger then the europian tarritorys, this was also a similar road block with the British and India in a imperial federation but in the case of spain this viable.
United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil and the Algarves - Wikipedia
Imperial Federation - Wikipedia
An Island Parliament was established, divided into a House of Representatives (32 members elected every 5 years; 1 for every 25,000 inhabitants) and a Council of Administration (8 elected by halves every 5 years and 7 appointed for life) with competence to regulate all local affairs and power in matters of Grace and Justice, Interior, Finance and Development. Meanwhile, the Spanish Cortes and the executive reserved for themselves those related to State, Navy and War. Its representative would be a Governor General, elected by the King on the proposal of the Cortes, who would exercise the Supreme Authority on behalf of the Metropolis. The power to legislate would correspond to the insular Chambers with the Governor General.
The island government or Office would be conformed by five secretariats, responsible before the Parliament, those of: Grace and Justice, of Treasury, of Public Instruction, of Public Works and Communications, and of Agriculture, Industry and Commerce. In addition, the Provincial Council of Puerto Rico and the municipalities would be maintained, and the island would elect 16 deputies and 3 senators to the Spanish Cortes.
The charters of Cuba and Puerto Rico were the most advanced self-government documents of all the European colonies in the Caribbean, surpassing the demands of the Autonomist Party, being able to be fully equated to the autonomy established by the United Kingdom in Canada in 1867.[4] The charter of Cuba and Puerto Rico were the most advanced self-government documents of all the European colonies in the Caribbean."